From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Oct 23 16:02:28 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9N82RvH006680 for ; Sat, 23 Oct 2010 16:02:27 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9N5186Z021767; Sat, 23 Oct 2010 03:02:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4007431 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 23 Oct 2010 03:02:16 -0500 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9N82Fwl003618 for ; Sat, 23 Oct 2010 03:02:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9N829hk016067 for ; Sat, 23 Oct 2010 03:02:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 08DE9108B0002; Sat, 23 Oct 2010 03:02:09 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101023080209.08DE9108B0002@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2010 03:02:08 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 16w (sixteen) Warning Nr 008 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN32 PGTW 230900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 008 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 16.2N 133.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 133.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 16.4N 132.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 16.7N 131.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 17.2N 130.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 17.8N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 19.1N 129.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 21.2N 129.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 23.9N 130.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 133.4E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230459Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON RJTD AND PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH INDUCED BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT). TD 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE TD 16W TO TRACK POLEWARD. AS THE TUTT CELL CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AND ALLOWS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE TO CONSEQUENTLY RELAX, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO STEADILY INTENSIFY. AS TD 16W INTENSIFIES, IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE BY TAU 60 AND INCREASE THE INTENSIFICATION RATE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY AS THEY ARE SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN. NOGAPS, GFS, UKMO, AND ECMWF MODELS ARE TRACKING THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. THE GFDN AND JGSM MODELS ARE OUTLIERS AND ERRONEOUSLY TRACK TD 16W WESTWARD ALONG A STRONGER STR. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS TRACKING MORE POLEWARD GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF A DEEPER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER TAUS OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THIS IS DUE TO AN EXPECTED COLD SURGE ORIGINATING OVER NORTHERN CHINA, WHICH MAY INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE LATER TAUS AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (MEGI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.