Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 16w (sixteen) Warning Nr 008

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2010 03:02:08 -0500

WTPN32 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 008
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230600Z --- NEAR 16.2N 133.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 133.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 16.4N 132.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 16.7N 131.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 17.2N 130.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 17.8N 130.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 19.1N 129.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 21.2N 129.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 23.9N 130.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 133.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
230459Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON RJTD AND PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE TO
THE NORTH INDUCED BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT).
TD 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 36
HOURS.  AFTER TAU 36, AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE TD 16W TO TRACK POLEWARD. AS THE TUTT
CELL CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AND ALLOWS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
SUBSIDENCE TO CONSEQUENTLY RELAX, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO
STEADILY INTENSIFY. AS TD 16W INTENSIFIES, IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE.
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE BY TAU
60 AND INCREASE THE INTENSIFICATION RATE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
UNCERTAINTY AS THEY ARE SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN.
NOGAPS, GFS, UKMO, AND ECMWF MODELS ARE TRACKING THE SYSTEM
POLEWARD. THE GFDN AND JGSM MODELS ARE OUTLIERS AND ERRONEOUSLY
TRACK TD 16W WESTWARD ALONG A STRONGER STR. THIS FORECAST IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS TRACKING MORE POLEWARD GIVEN THE
EXPECTATION OF A DEEPER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER TAUS OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THIS IS DUE
TO AN EXPECTED COLD SURGE ORIGINATING OVER NORTHERN CHINA, WHICH MAY
INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE LATER TAUS AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM
TO INTENSIFY LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z,
240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 15W (MEGI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM.//

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