From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Oct 23 16:28:45 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9N8SioC007818 for ; Sat, 23 Oct 2010 16:28:45 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9N3QamP000583; Sat, 23 Oct 2010 03:28:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4007522 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 23 Oct 2010 03:28:15 -0500 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9N8SFow005044 for ; Sat, 23 Oct 2010 03:28:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9N8S8a9006109 for ; Sat, 23 Oct 2010 03:28:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 862BE108B0002; Sat, 23 Oct 2010 03:28:08 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101023082808.862BE108B0002@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2010 03:28:08 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 17w (seventeen) Warning Nr 007 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN33 PGTW 230900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 007 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 22.2N 154.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 154.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 22.5N 154.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 23.0N 155.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 154.1E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720 NM EAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 40 NM TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 17W IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TD 17W SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH VWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH, TD 17W SHOULD WEAKEN TO BELOW WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH ERRATIC TRACKS, INDICATIVE OF A DISSIPATION SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (MEGI) WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.