Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 17w (seventeen) Warning Nr 007

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2010 03:28:08 -0500

WTPN33 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 007
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230600Z --- NEAR 22.2N 154.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 154.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 22.5N 154.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 23.0N 155.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 154.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 720 NM EAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDING
AND DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 40 NM TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 17W IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH HIGH EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TD 17W SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH VWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH,
TD 17W SHOULD WEAKEN TO BELOW WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH ERRATIC TRACKS, INDICATIVE OF A DISSIPATION SCENARIO. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (MEGI)
WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM. REFER TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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