Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 16w (sixteen) Warning Nr 010

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2010 15:48:10 -0500

WTPN32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 010
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z --- NEAR 15.4N 133.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 133.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 15.5N 132.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 16.1N 131.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 17.2N 130.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 18.5N 130.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 20.6N 130.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 22.8N 131.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 25.2N 131.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 132.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 231630Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW IMPROVED BUT STILL
BROAD CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL BANDING WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE
AMSRE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS AND A 231248Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING 30 KNOT
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS INDUCING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND IS HINDERING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 16W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER CHINA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTHWARD CAUSING THE STEERING RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND REORIENT. THIS
WILL ALLOW TD 16W TO TURN POLEWARD AROUND TAU 24. ADDITIONALLY,
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SUPPORT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSIFICATION RATE
SHOULD SLOW AROUND TAU 72, WHEN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD SURGE ORIGINATING OVER
NORTHERN CHINA. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS SPLIT WITH NOGAPS,
GFS, UKMO, AND ECMWF FAVORING A POLEWARD TURN, WHILE GFDN AND JGSM
ARE ERRONEOUSLY TRACKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD ALONG A PRESUMABLY
STRONGER STR. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS TRACKING
MORE POLEWARD IN ANTICIPATION OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH REORIENTING
THE STEERING RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.//

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