From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Oct 24 04:48:36 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9NKmYQW004245 for ; Sun, 24 Oct 2010 04:48:35 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9MGVYpa001368; Sat, 23 Oct 2010 15:48:18 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4013052 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 23 Oct 2010 15:48:18 -0500 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9NKmIvg027857 for ; Sat, 23 Oct 2010 15:48:18 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9NKmB4g021809 for ; Sat, 23 Oct 2010 15:48:17 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 57C4B108B0001; Sat, 23 Oct 2010 15:48:10 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101023204811.57C4B108B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2010 15:48:10 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 16w (sixteen) Warning Nr 010 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN32 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 010 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 15.4N 133.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 133.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 15.5N 132.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 16.1N 131.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 17.2N 130.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 18.5N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 20.6N 130.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 22.8N 131.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 25.2N 131.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 132.8E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231630Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW IMPROVED BUT STILL BROAD CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL BANDING WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE AMSRE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS AND A 231248Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING 30 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS INDUCING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND IS HINDERING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER CHINA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD CAUSING THE STEERING RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND REORIENT. THIS WILL ALLOW TD 16W TO TURN POLEWARD AROUND TAU 24. ADDITIONALLY, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SUPPORT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSIFICATION RATE SHOULD SLOW AROUND TAU 72, WHEN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD SURGE ORIGINATING OVER NORTHERN CHINA. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS SPLIT WITH NOGAPS, GFS, UKMO, AND ECMWF FAVORING A POLEWARD TURN, WHILE GFDN AND JGSM ARE ERRONEOUSLY TRACKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD ALONG A PRESUMABLY STRONGER STR. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS TRACKING MORE POLEWARD IN ANTICIPATION OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH REORIENTING THE STEERING RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.