Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 24 Oct 2010 01:08:03 -0500

767 
FXPQ60 PGUM 240607
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
407 PM CHST SUN OCT 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS
WATERS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W TO THE EAST HAS DISSIPATED.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W TO THE WEST IS INTENSIFYING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRADE-WIND TROUGH NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SLIP TO OUR SOUTH. THIS
LEAVES OUR FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A BIT
OF UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS LEFT OVER FROM A SLUG OF CONVECTION
THAT GOT LAUNCHED IN OUR DIRECTION FROM THE TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSHPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT/. COVERED THIS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. DID NOT CHANGE THE SHOWER COVERAGE AS TOPS HAVE BEEN
WARMING AND SO FAR SAIPAN HAS ONLY 0.02 INCHES. RADAR PRECIP SHOWS
THE WHOLE AREA IS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE STILL
LOOKS DRY AS WORDED IN PREVIOUS GRIDS SO NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS NORTH OF KWAJALEIN AND EAST OF 
MAJURO WHILE POHNPEI AND KOSRAE SIT WITHIN A LARGE DRY SLOT 
STRETCHING WESTWARD TO CHUUK. A TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE DATE LINE 
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MAJURO FIRST BY INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY 
MORNING...THEN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL DATA 
SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT MAJURO THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT 
BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. KOSRAE AND POHNPEI SHOULD STAY DRIER 
AS CONVECTION PASSES TO THE NORTH...BUT THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WINDS 
BACK TO THE EAST BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS REMAIN JUST WEST OF CHUUK EVEN THOUGH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVED 
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 
TONIGHT...BUT THEY WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED. THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO 
PASS THROUGH EASTERN MICRONESIA LATER THIS WEEK WILL INCREASE 
MOISTURE AT CHUUK...BUT WITH IT STILL 4 TO 5 DAYS OUT...WILL KEEP 
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING 
WESTWARD BETWEEN YAP AND PALAU MAY PROVIDE PALAU WITH A FEW HOURS OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SHOWERS EITHER 
DISSIPATE OR PASS TO THE WEST. AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W MOVES
FARTHER AWAY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SETTLE
IN AND LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/W. AYDLETT

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