From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Oct 24 14:08:33 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9O68W85027607 for ; Sun, 24 Oct 2010 14:08:33 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9N518hQ021767; Sun, 24 Oct 2010 01:08:10 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4017223 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 24 Oct 2010 01:08:10 -0500 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9O689DM000792 for ; Sun, 24 Oct 2010 01:08:10 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9O683bI024274 for ; Sun, 24 Oct 2010 01:08:09 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 579B6405001E; Sun, 24 Oct 2010 01:08:03 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101024060803.579B6405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 24 Oct 2010 01:08:03 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 767 FXPQ60 PGUM 240607 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 407 PM CHST SUN OCT 24 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS WATERS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W TO THE EAST HAS DISSIPATED. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W TO THE WEST IS INTENSIFYING. && .DISCUSSION... TRADE-WIND TROUGH NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SLIP TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LEAVES OUR FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A BIT OF UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS LEFT OVER FROM A SLUG OF CONVECTION THAT GOT LAUNCHED IN OUR DIRECTION FROM THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSHPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT/. COVERED THIS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. DID NOT CHANGE THE SHOWER COVERAGE AS TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING AND SO FAR SAIPAN HAS ONLY 0.02 INCHES. RADAR PRECIP SHOWS THE WHOLE AREA IS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE STILL LOOKS DRY AS WORDED IN PREVIOUS GRIDS SO NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS NORTH OF KWAJALEIN AND EAST OF MAJURO WHILE POHNPEI AND KOSRAE SIT WITHIN A LARGE DRY SLOT STRETCHING WESTWARD TO CHUUK. A TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE DATE LINE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MAJURO FIRST BY INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING...THEN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT MAJURO THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. KOSRAE AND POHNPEI SHOULD STAY DRIER AS CONVECTION PASSES TO THE NORTH...BUT THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE EAST BY LATE TUESDAY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SHOWERS REMAIN JUST WEST OF CHUUK EVEN THOUGH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT THEY WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED. THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH EASTERN MICRONESIA LATER THIS WEEK WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AT CHUUK...BUT WITH IT STILL 4 TO 5 DAYS OUT...WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD BETWEEN YAP AND PALAU MAY PROVIDE PALAU WITH A FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SHOWERS EITHER DISSIPATE OR PASS TO THE WEST. AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W MOVES FARTHER AWAY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN AND LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.