From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Oct 24 15:44:34 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9O7iX3P030396 for ; Sun, 24 Oct 2010 15:44:34 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9N518iW021767; Sun, 24 Oct 2010 02:44:18 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4017623 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 24 Oct 2010 02:44:17 -0500 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9O7iHKI006107 for ; Sun, 24 Oct 2010 02:44:17 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9O7iBLY007630 for ; Sun, 24 Oct 2010 02:44:17 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 0B913405001E; Sun, 24 Oct 2010 02:44:10 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101024074411.0B913405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 24 Oct 2010 02:44:10 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 16w (sixteen) Warning Nr 012 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN32 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 012 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 15.5N 132.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 132.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 15.9N 131.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 16.7N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 17.8N 130.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 18.9N 130.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 21.3N 130.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 23.7N 130.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 26.1N 131.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 132.4E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BAND AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND A 240449Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE DUE TO HIGH CLOUD COVER AND POOR MICROWAVE IMAGE RESOLUTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED BETWEEN PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEGINNING TO EMERGE AFTER THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTH MOVED FURTHER WESTWARD. TD 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER CHINA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD CAUSING THE STEERING RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND REORIENT. THIS WILL THEN ALLOW TD 16W TO TURN POLEWARD AROUND TAU 24. CONSEQUENTLY, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, FUELING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO STRONG WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAM. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS SPREAD OUT WITH NOGAPS AND WBAR FAVORING AN EARLIER RECURVATURE. GFDN, UKMO AND JGSM ARE TRACKING TD 16W POLEWARD INITIALLY AND THEN WESTWARD, PRESUMABLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH - AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE BUT TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE WESTWARD OUTLIERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.