Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 16w (sixteen) Warning Nr 012

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 24 Oct 2010 02:44:10 -0500

WTPN32 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 012
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240600Z --- NEAR 15.5N 132.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 132.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 15.9N 131.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 16.7N 131.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 17.8N 130.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 18.9N 130.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 21.3N 130.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 23.7N 130.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 26.1N 131.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 132.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
710 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BAND AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION THAT IS SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND A 240449Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE DUE TO HIGH CLOUD COVER AND POOR
MICROWAVE IMAGE RESOLUTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED BETWEEN
PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEGINNING TO
EMERGE AFTER THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTH
MOVED FURTHER WESTWARD. TD 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER CHINA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD CAUSING THE STEERING RIDGE
TO WEAKEN AND REORIENT. THIS WILL THEN ALLOW TD 16W TO TURN POLEWARD
AROUND TAU 24. CONSEQUENTLY, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, FUELING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. AFTER
TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AS IT
BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES DUE
TO STRONG WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAM. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS SPREAD OUT WITH NOGAPS AND WBAR FAVORING AN
EARLIER RECURVATURE. GFDN, UKMO AND JGSM ARE TRACKING TD 16W POLEWARD
INITIALLY AND THEN WESTWARD, PRESUMABLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH - AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE BUT TO THE RIGHT OF
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE WESTWARD OUTLIERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z,
250300Z AND 250900Z.//

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