From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Oct 25 05:18:43 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9OLIgMw025518 for ; Mon, 25 Oct 2010 05:18:43 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9OBCYgI021767; Sun, 24 Oct 2010 16:18:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4025991 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 24 Oct 2010 16:18:13 -0500 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9OLICDJ010240 for ; Sun, 24 Oct 2010 16:18:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9OLI6qg028614 for ; Sun, 24 Oct 2010 16:18:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 14915405001E; Sun, 24 Oct 2010 16:18:06 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101024211806.14915405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 24 Oct 2010 16:18:06 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 16w (chaba) Warning Nr 014 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN32 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 16.8N 131.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 131.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 17.5N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 18.4N 129.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 19.3N 129.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 20.2N 129.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 22.1N 129.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 23.9N 129.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 26.4N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 242100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 131.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 241713Z AMSRE 36H MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH DEPICTS CURVED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED, AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS PREVENTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND IS HINDERING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 16W HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REORIENTING THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. A 241200Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA. THE STEERING RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RE-ORIENT AND WEAKEN WITH THE PASSING MID- LATITUDE TROUGH, ALLOWING TS 16W TO TURN MORE POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AROUND TAU 96, TS CHABA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO INCREASE, WHICH WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM TRACK BEGINS TO ROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID- LATITUDES AS WELL AS LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHOULD INITIALLY WEAKEN TS 16W AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD, EXCEPT FOR GFDN WHICH ERRONEOUSLY INTENSIFIES TS 16W AND TRACKS IT WESTWARD. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND TAU 72 TO 96. NOGAPS TRACKS THE SYSTEM FURTHEST NORTHWARD AND TURNS THE SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ECMWF, GFS, EGRR, AND WBAR PULL TS CHABA NORTHEASTWARD BELOW 24N DEGREES LATITUDE, INDICATING THE MID- LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO INDUCE A RECURVATURE SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO BASED ON THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.