Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 16w (chaba) Warning Nr 014

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 24 Oct 2010 16:18:06 -0500

WTPN32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z --- NEAR 16.8N 131.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 131.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 17.5N 130.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 18.4N 129.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 19.3N 129.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 20.2N 129.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 22.1N 129.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 23.9N 129.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 26.4N 130.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 131.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 241713Z AMSRE 36H MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH
DEPICTS CURVED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS.
ALTHOUGH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED, AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH IS PREVENTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND IS HINDERING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 16W HAS
TURNED NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE, UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REORIENTING THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. A
241200Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA. THE STEERING RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RE-ORIENT AND WEAKEN WITH THE PASSING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH, ALLOWING TS 16W TO TURN MORE POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. AROUND TAU 96, TS CHABA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD
AS IT ROUNDS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
TROUGH SHOULD ALSO INCREASE, WHICH WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM TRACK BEGINS TO ROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-
LATITUDES AS WELL AS LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHOULD INITIALLY
WEAKEN TS 16W AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TURN NORTHWARD
AND NORTHEASTWARD, EXCEPT FOR GFDN WHICH ERRONEOUSLY INTENSIFIES TS
16W AND TRACKS IT WESTWARD. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND TAU 72 TO 96. NOGAPS
TRACKS THE SYSTEM FURTHEST NORTHWARD AND TURNS THE SYSTEM JUST SOUTH
OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ECMWF, GFS, EGRR, AND WBAR PULL TS CHABA
NORTHEASTWARD BELOW 24N DEGREES LATITUDE, INDICATING THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO INDUCE A RECURVATURE
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO BASED ON
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND
252100Z.//

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