From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Oct 25 11:20:53 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9P3Kqjc007198 for ; Mon, 25 Oct 2010 11:20:53 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9P2mu3K021767; Sun, 24 Oct 2010 22:20:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4030124 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 24 Oct 2010 22:20:16 -0500 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9P3KG6h007943 for ; Sun, 24 Oct 2010 22:20:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9P3K9Sf000573 for ; Sun, 24 Oct 2010 22:20:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 6CDCF405001E; Sun, 24 Oct 2010 22:20:09 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101025032009.6CDCF405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 24 Oct 2010 22:20:09 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 929 FXPQ60 PGUM 250320 AAA AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 120 PM CHST MON OCT 25 2010 .UPDATE...UPDATED SURF FORECAST BASED ON YPAO BEACH REPORT OF 5 TO 6 FEET WAVES AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. LIKELIHOOD OF LARGE WEST WAVES FROM TS CHABA (17N131E) IS SMALL. ADJUSTED GRIDS ENOUGH TO CALCULATE MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM TRADE-WIND WAVES AND OTHER SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SURF FORECAST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 AM CHST MON OCT 25 2010/ SYNOPSIS... AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ATTENDANT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE GUAM MARINE ZONES. A TUTT CELL IS CENTERED NEAR ANATAHAN...AND IS DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD. DISCUSSION... PROXIMITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL AND SURFACE TROUGH ARGUE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. KEPT SHOWER COVERAGE ISOLATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH SPREAD NORTHWARD...AN UPDATE TO THE AM FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE NEEDED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER/POPS. MOST LIKELY UPDATE SCENARIO WOULD BE TO INCREASE POPS FOR GUAM TO SCATTERED AND SPLIT THE FORECAST ZONES. AFTER TONIGHT...WEATHER LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY. NEXT POSSIBLE WEATHER MAKER APPEARS TO BE THE TRADE-WIND TROUGH IN THE MARSHALLS. GFS BRINGS THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF GUAM AS WELL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EASTERN MICRONESIA... THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH CROSSING THE DATELINE INTO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS HAS PASSED OVER MAJURO. SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED OVER MAJURO EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE TAPERED OFF FOR THE TIME BEING. MUCH MORE CONVECTION IS LINED UP TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF MAJURO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE WEST...RETURNING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAJURO TONIGHT. MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO ADVECT MUCH OF THIS WEATHER NORTH OF KOSRAE...BUT POHNPEI SHOULD SEE SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WESTERN MICRONESIA... SKY CONDITIONS CLEARED RAPIDLY IN THE HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE NEAR YAP AND PALAU. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR BOTH LOCATIONS FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CONVECTION JUST SOUTHEAST OF YAP COULD BE THE CAUSE FOR AN AMENDMENT SHOULD THIS WEATHER ENCROACH. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOUTHWARD BUILDING OF CONVECTION...WITH A VERY GRADUAL WESTWARD DRIFT. CURRENT COURSE SUGGESTS A NEAR TERM PASSAGE JUST SOUTH OF YAP. MOVING EAST...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESIDE BETWEEN YAP AND CHUUK. CHUUK REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO CLEAR OUT. SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN NEAR AND EAST OF CHUUK. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE ADDED FOR TODAY...BUT KEPT SHOWER COVERAGE ISOLATED. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ SIMPSON/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.