From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Oct 25 15:18:48 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9P7Ilp6031400 for ; Mon, 25 Oct 2010 15:18:48 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9P1jkvw000583; Mon, 25 Oct 2010 02:18:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4033438 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 25 Oct 2010 02:18:13 -0500 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9P7IClf028914 for ; Mon, 25 Oct 2010 02:18:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9P7I6Et022023 for ; Mon, 25 Oct 2010 02:18:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id D4CA34050020; Mon, 25 Oct 2010 02:18:05 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101025071805.D4CA34050020@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 25 Oct 2010 02:18:05 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 16w (chaba) Warning Nr 016 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN32 PGTW 250900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 17.4N 130.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 130.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 18.5N 129.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 19.6N 129.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 20.4N 129.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 21.5N 129.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 23.3N 129.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 25.7N 130.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 29.2N 132.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 130.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST- WARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 250440Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. TS 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO TO RE-ORIENT AND WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST, ALLOWING TS 16W TO TURN MORE POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TROUGH AND GOOD EXISTING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 72, TS CHABA IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE RIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AS WELL AS LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHOULD START TO WEAKEN TS 16W AS IT BEGINS EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNREALISTICALLY ABRUPT WESTWARD GFDN SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.