Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 16w (chaba) Warning Nr 016

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 25 Oct 2010 02:18:05 -0500

WTPN32 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 016
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250600Z --- NEAR 17.4N 130.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 130.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 18.5N 129.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 19.6N 129.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 20.4N 129.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 21.5N 129.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 23.3N 129.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 25.7N 130.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 29.2N 132.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 130.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WITHIN THE
PAST SIX HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
250440Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
55 KNOTS. TS 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST
TO TO RE-ORIENT AND WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHWEST, ALLOWING TS 16W TO TURN
MORE POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO THE TROUGH AND GOOD EXISTING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD SUPPORT
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 72, TS CHABA IS EXPECTED TO TURN
MORE TO THE RIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AS WELL AS LOWER OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT SHOULD START TO WEAKEN TS 16W AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WHICH
IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNREALISTICALLY
ABRUPT WESTWARD GFDN SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND
260900Z.//

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