From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Oct 25 16:30:57 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9P8UtE9009164 for ; Mon, 25 Oct 2010 16:30:57 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9P1jkwe000583; Mon, 25 Oct 2010 03:30:23 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4033749 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 25 Oct 2010 03:30:22 -0500 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9P8UMbm003741 for ; Mon, 25 Oct 2010 03:30:22 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9P8UGww019120 for ; Mon, 25 Oct 2010 03:30:22 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id D908B4050020; Mon, 25 Oct 2010 03:30:15 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101025083015.D908B4050020@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 25 Oct 2010 03:30:15 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 034 FXPQ60 PGUM 250830 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 630 PM CHST MON OCT 25 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A DISTURBANCE SE TO S OF GUAM IS MOVING WESTWARD. SATELLITE SHOWS HEAVIER CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ALONG 8N-10N NEAR 144E BUT OTHER BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WERE E-SE OF GUAM BETWEEN 146E AND 150E. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED WEST OF GUAM AND OUR UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE DIVERGENT. PGUA RADAR SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. FORMER TD 17W APPEARS TO BE REVIVING NEAR 22N154E. ALSO...VAAC WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY FOR PAGAN. && .DISCUSSION... INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR GUAM LATE TONIGHT...BUT KEPT SHOWER COVERAGE ISOL AND DID NOT SEPARATE ZONES. RISK OF TSTMS WILL INCREASE WITH MORE UNSTABLE NIGHT-TIME CONDITIONS DEVELOPING NEAR GUAM AND SOUTHWARD...WHILE SCATTERED COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF GUAM ZONES. MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ABOUT SHOWER COVERAGE FOR THE MARIANAS DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. GFS MORE THAN OTHER MODELS INDICATES SOME INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MARIANAS...OTHER MODELS ARE DRIER...AND FOR NOW A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST IS PREFERRED. && .MARINE...SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO MARINE GRIDS...BUT CONTINUED THE TREND FOR A MARGINAL WIND SHIFT AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES BY OUR SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY. EAST WINDS AND LARGER NE SWELL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THRU TUESDAY. AS IT SLIDES WESTWARD...IT WILL ALSO SPREAD SIMILAR WEATHER OVER KOSRAE AND POHNPEI BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A DIFFUSE ITCZ IS VISIBLE EAST OF THE DATE LINE ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY WET PATTERN OVER THE REGION AFTER MIDWEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CONVERGING WINDS EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE-WIND FLOW ARE GOING TO INTRODUCE SOME SHOWERS FOR CHUUK LATE THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING. THEN WEAKER SOUTHEASTERLIES FARTHER EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A DRIER PERIOD THRU MIDWEEK. TOWARD THE WEEKEND...THE TRADE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED EARLIER SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE ISLAND WITH INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE. THIS SAME SURFACE TROUGH IS STEADILY APPROACHING YAP WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE WET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO REACH YAP ON TUESDAY AND THEN KOROR ON TUESDAY EVENING. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDWEEK AS THE TROUGH PULLS FARTHER WEST INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ SIMPSON/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.