Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 25 Oct 2010 16:27:27 -0500

112 
FXPQ60 PGUM 252127
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
727 AM CHST TUE OCT 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...EAST TRADE-WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE LOCAL
AREA THIS MORNING. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
ISLANDS NEAR 18N140E. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EAST TRADE-WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FORECAST. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE NEAR NEAR 150E. A FEW MODELS
DO SHOW THIS TROUGH MOVING ACOSS THE MARIANAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
...BUT THEY KEEP SHOWERS ISOLATED WITH ITS PASSAGE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT A BIT BECAUSE OF THE TROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO REALLY CHANGE THE FORECAST FROM BASIC EAST TRADE-WIND FLOW.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH REMAINDER OF FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST SWELL WILL INCREASE FROM FIVE FEET TODAY TO
SIX FEET TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A RISE IN SURF ON NORTH FACING
REEFS TONIGHT BY ABOUT ONE TO TWO FEET. WW3 MODEL DOES SHOW A
NORTHWEST SWELL ENTERING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
SWELL IS GENERATED FROM A COMBINATION OF TROPICAL STORM CHABA AND
A FRONTAL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. IT WILL NOT GET TOO LARGE
BUT ADDED IT TO SWELL FORECAST TO INCREASE ACCURACY OF SURF
FORECAST ON THE WEST AND NORTH FACING REEFS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO PERIODS ONE AND TWO OF THE FORECAST FOR A 
COUPLE LOCATIONS FOR CHANGE IN WEATHER. GUSTY AND SHOWERY WEATHER 
QUICKLY DISSOLVED YESTERDAY EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS 
SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE REDUCED TO 
ISOLATED TODAY...BUT WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS PASS OVER 
THE DATELINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PASSING OVER KOSRAE AND ANOTHER 
AREA OVER POHNPEI. A DISORGANIZED ITCZ SEEMS TO BE SETTING UP ACROSS 
THE REGION...MODELS SOMEWHAT AGREE ON THIS FEATURE...PARTICULARLY 
THE GFS WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH OBSERVED CONDITIONS. THUS 
SAID...THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK 
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEING POPULAR AS CONVECTION KEEPS BANDED 
ACROSS THE REGION. 

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE ADDED ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS IN 
THE REGION FOR TODAY DUE TO PROXIMITY OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR 
YAP AND KOROR PRODUCING SHOWERS AND CONTINUED DIVERGENCE ALOFT. 
CHUUK SITS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DISORGANIZED ITCZ THAT 
EXTENDS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE DATELINE. MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED 
TO DECREASE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE 
WEEK...BUT CHUUK COULD SEE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS WEEK 
DEPENDING ON HOW EFFICIENTLY SHOWERS BUILD IN BETWEEN CHUUK AND THE 
MARSHALL ISLANDS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT

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