From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Oct 26 07:35:02 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9PNZ1cu030756 for ; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 07:35:02 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9PHJNgZ021767; Mon, 25 Oct 2010 18:34:45 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4049096 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 25 Oct 2010 18:34:45 -0500 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9PNYixb001764 for ; Mon, 25 Oct 2010 18:34:44 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9PNYcoO004106 for ; Mon, 25 Oct 2010 18:34:44 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 2C662108B0001; Mon, 25 Oct 2010 18:34:38 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101025233438.2C662108B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 25 Oct 2010 18:34:38 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 623 FXPQ60 PGUM 252334 AAA AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 934 AM CHST TUE OCT 26 2010 .UPDATE... UPDATED THE SURF FORECAST BASED ON RECENT SURF OBSERVATIONS OF HIGHER SURF ALONG WEST AND NORTH FACING REEFS. ALSO...RECENT ALTIMETRY DATA SHOWS HIGHER SEAS PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MARIANAS FROM A STATIONARY FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 AM CHST TUE OCT 26 2010/ SYNOPSIS...EAST TRADE-WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE ISLANDS NEAR 18N140E. DISCUSSION... EAST TRADE-WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FORECAST. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE NEAR NEAR 150E. A FEW MODELS DO SHOW THIS TROUGH MOVING ACOSS THE MARIANAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ..BUT THEY KEEP SHOWERS ISOLATED WITH ITS PASSAGE. WINDS WILL SHIFT A BIT BECAUSE OF THE TROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO REALLY CHANGE THE FORECAST FROM BASIC EAST TRADE-WIND FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH REMAINDER OF FORECAST. MARINE...NORTHEAST SWELL WILL INCREASE FROM FIVE FEET TODAY TO SIX FEET TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A RISE IN SURF ON NORTH FACING REEFS TONIGHT BY ABOUT ONE TO TWO FEET. WW3 MODEL DOES SHOW A NORTHWEST SWELL ENTERING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SWELL IS GENERATED FROM A COMBINATION OF TROPICAL STORM CHABA AND A FRONTAL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. IT WILL NOT GET TOO LARGE BUT ADDED IT TO SWELL FORECAST TO INCREASE ACCURACY OF SURF FORECAST ON THE WEST AND NORTH FACING REEFS. EASTERN MICRONESIA... A FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO PERIODS ONE AND TWO OF THE FORECAST FOR A COUPLE LOCATIONS FOR CHANGE IN WEATHER. GUSTY AND SHOWERY WEATHER QUICKLY DISSOLVED YESTERDAY EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE REDUCED TO ISOLATED TODAY...BUT WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS MORE SHOWERS PASS OVER THE DATELINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PASSING OVER KOSRAE AND ANOTHER AREA OVER POHNPEI. A DISORGANIZED ITCZ SEEMS TO BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION...MODELS SOMEWHAT AGREE ON THIS FEATURE...PARTICULARLY THE GFS WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH OBSERVED CONDITIONS. THUS SAID...THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEING POPULAR AS CONVECTION KEEPS BANDED ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERN MICRONESIA... SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE ADDED ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS IN THE REGION FOR TODAY DUE TO PROXIMITY OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR YAP AND KOROR PRODUCING SHOWERS AND CONTINUED DIVERGENCE ALOFT. CHUUK SITS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DISORGANIZED ITCZ THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE DATELINE. MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT CHUUK COULD SEE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW EFFICIENTLY SHOWERS BUILD IN BETWEEN CHUUK AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.