From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Oct 26 13:58:54 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9Q5wraD008504 for ; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 13:58:54 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9Q50R6j021767; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 00:58:40 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4054855 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 00:58:40 -0500 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9Q5wdHA003205 for ; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 00:58:39 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9Q5wXLK014029 for ; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 00:58:39 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 2F531405001F; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 00:58:33 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101026055833.2F531405001F@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2010 00:58:33 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 471 FXPQ60 PGUM 260558 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 358 PM CHST TUE OCT 26 2010 .SYNOPSIS... RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARIANAS WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS...MOST OF WHICH ARE A RESULT OF ISLAND- EFFECT CONVECTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A CONVECTIVELY QUIET TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE MARIANAS. && .DISCUSSION... LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A GENERALLY DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN FOR THE MARIANAS THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY ABOVE ISOLATED. WINDS MAY ALSO SHIFT A BIT DURING TROUGH PASSAGE BUT WILL RETURN TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... ALTIMETRY DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGHER SEAS PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FROM A STATIONARY FRONT FAR TO THE NORTH. SURF OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM HIGHER SURF ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS. WAVE WATCH 3 MODEL INTRODUCES A NORTHWEST SWELL LATER THIS WEEK ORIGINATING FROM A COMBINATION OF TYPHOON CHABA AND THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL INCREASE SURF ALONG WEST FACING REEFS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A WEAK ITCZ PERSISTS ACROSS THIS AREA AND SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED ROUGHLY IN AN AREA FROM 3N TO 8N FROM 160E TO THE DATELINE. THIS DOES INCLUDE POHNPEI...KOSRAE AND MAJURO. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED NEAR-TERM...BUT MARGINALLY DRIER EAST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM EAST TO WEST AS THIS WEEK PROGRESSES. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE...AND MAINLY FOLLOWED GFS GUIDANCE. STILL VERY DRY ALONG THE EQUATOR...ESPECIALLY FROM NAURU WESTWARD ACROSS KAPINGAMARANGI. MAJURO BUOY KALO SHOWS 4 FT WAVES AT 9 SEC...BUT THAT IS PROBABLY THE LOW SIDE OF NEARBY SEA CONDITIONS AND WILL FORECAST 4 TO 6 FEET FOR MAJURO MARINE ZONE. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... BOTH ALTIMETRY AND WW3 WAVE MODEL INDICATE LARGER NW TO N SWELL FROM TY CHABA WILL ARRIVE IN THE YAP AND PALAU AREAS BY THU OR FRI...AND THIS MIGHT REQUIRE HIGH SURF ADV BY THEN. OTHERWISE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS YAP AND KOROR IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER NEAR KOROR THROUGH WED...THEN LIGHT SE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EASTERLY FOR YAP AND PALAU. MODELS INDICATE THE ITCZ AND SOME SHOWERS FROM EASTERN MICRONESIA MIGHT SPREAD TOWARD YAP AND PALAU LATER THIS WEEK...BUT ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME. FOR CHUUK...THE ITCZ WILL LIKELY PERSIST BETWEEN 4N AND 8N AND SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT TIMES THROUGH THIS WEEK. AGAIN...VERY DRY WEATHER PERSISTS NEAR THE EQUATOR. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ W. AYDLETT/SIMPSON +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.