Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2010 00:58:33 -0500

471 
FXPQ60 PGUM 260558
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
358 PM CHST TUE OCT 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARIANAS
WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS...MOST OF WHICH ARE A RESULT OF ISLAND-
EFFECT CONVECTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A CONVECTIVELY
QUIET TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE LATEST
MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A GENERALLY DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN
FOR THE MARIANAS THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THE TROUGH EAST OF THE
AREA WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT INCREASE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ABOVE ISOLATED. WINDS MAY ALSO SHIFT A BIT DURING TROUGH
PASSAGE BUT WILL RETURN TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ALTIMETRY DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGHER SEAS PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA FROM A STATIONARY FRONT FAR TO THE NORTH. SURF
OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM HIGHER SURF ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS. WAVE
WATCH 3 MODEL INTRODUCES A NORTHWEST SWELL LATER THIS WEEK
ORIGINATING FROM A COMBINATION OF TYPHOON CHABA AND THE STATIONARY
FRONT THAT WILL INCREASE SURF ALONG WEST FACING REEFS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK ITCZ PERSISTS ACROSS THIS AREA AND SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED 
ROUGHLY IN AN AREA FROM 3N TO 8N FROM 160E TO THE DATELINE. THIS 
DOES INCLUDE POHNPEI...KOSRAE AND MAJURO. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED 
NEAR-TERM...BUT MARGINALLY DRIER EAST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM EAST 
TO WEST AS THIS WEEK PROGRESSES. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE...AND MAINLY 
FOLLOWED GFS GUIDANCE. STILL VERY DRY ALONG THE EQUATOR...ESPECIALLY 
FROM NAURU WESTWARD ACROSS KAPINGAMARANGI. MAJURO BUOY KALO SHOWS 4 
FT WAVES AT 9 SEC...BUT THAT IS PROBABLY THE LOW SIDE OF NEARBY SEA 
CONDITIONS AND WILL FORECAST 4 TO 6 FEET FOR MAJURO MARINE ZONE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
BOTH ALTIMETRY AND WW3 WAVE MODEL INDICATE LARGER NW TO N SWELL FROM 
TY CHABA WILL ARRIVE IN THE YAP AND PALAU AREAS BY THU OR FRI...AND 
THIS MIGHT REQUIRE HIGH SURF ADV BY THEN. OTHERWISE A WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGH ACROSS YAP AND KOROR IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS WILL LINGER NEAR KOROR THROUGH WED...THEN LIGHT SE WINDS 
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EASTERLY FOR YAP AND PALAU. MODELS INDICATE 
THE ITCZ AND SOME SHOWERS FROM EASTERN MICRONESIA MIGHT SPREAD 
TOWARD YAP AND PALAU LATER THIS WEEK...BUT ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL 
LIKELY PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME. FOR CHUUK...THE ITCZ WILL LIKELY 
PERSIST BETWEEN 4N AND 8N AND SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED 
AT TIMES THROUGH THIS WEEK. AGAIN...VERY DRY WEATHER PERSISTS NEAR 
THE EQUATOR.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

W. AYDLETT/SIMPSON

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