Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 16w (chaba) Warning Nr 020

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2010 04:02:07 -0500

WTPN32 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 020
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260600Z --- NEAR 19.9N 128.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 128.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 20.9N 128.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 22.0N 128.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 23.2N 128.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 24.4N 128.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 27.5N 130.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 31.4N 134.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z --- 35.9N 140.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 128.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), CURRENTLY LOCATED 400 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG A NARROW EXTENSION OF A DEEP LAYER STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH OF NORTHWEST IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THIS FEATURE ERODES. COMPARISON OF 500 MB CHARTS
FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS INDICATE THAT THIS EXTENSION HAS YET TO
WEAKEN, VALIDATING THE PRESENT 6-HOUR MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST. COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS, ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING COLD SURGE OVER
EASTERN ASIAN WATERS, HAS BEGUN TO BUFFET THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE TYPHOON. A WEAK INFLUX OF STRATOCUMULUS IS SNAKING IN TOWARDS
THE CENTER OF THE TYPHOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS INDICATE THE SURGE HAS YET TO MODIFY THE
TROPICAL MARITIME AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH TY 16W. DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD RANGE FROM A T4.0 TO A T4.5. THE INITIAL FORECAST
INTENSITY REFLECTS THE NUMERICAL AVERAGE OF THESE ESTIMATES. MORE
RECENTLY DEEP CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DEPLETED OVER THE CENTER. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES THE NEXT FORECAST WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE
ASSESSED AS A WEAKER SYSTEM INITIALLY, WHICH WOULD THEN REPLICATE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS STABILIZED SOME AS
GFDN AND WBAR HAVE COME IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE PACKING. BEYOND
TAU 48 NOGAPS AND GFDN DIVERGE WESTWARD FROM THE PACKING AND
ILLOGICALLY DRIVE THE TY INTO THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER
SASEBO. JGSM AND EGRR (BEYOND TAU 72) TRACK THE SYSTEM ESPECIALLY
SLOW, PERHAPS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE SURGE. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS STILL FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND TAU 96 AND COMPLETE BY
120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.