From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Oct 26 17:02:28 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9Q92QHu026685 for ; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 17:02:27 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9Q50RIg021767; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 04:02:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4057178 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 04:02:14 -0500 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9Q92Efk018068 for ; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 04:02:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9Q927JY005642 for ; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 04:02:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id A4F504050021; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 04:02:07 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101026090207.A4F504050021@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2010 04:02:07 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 16w (chaba) Warning Nr 020 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN32 PGTW 260900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z --- NEAR 19.9N 128.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 128.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 20.9N 128.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 22.0N 128.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 23.2N 128.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 24.4N 128.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 27.5N 130.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 31.4N 134.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 35.9N 140.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 260900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 128.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), CURRENTLY LOCATED 400 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG A NARROW EXTENSION OF A DEEP LAYER STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH OF NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THIS FEATURE ERODES. COMPARISON OF 500 MB CHARTS FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS INDICATE THAT THIS EXTENSION HAS YET TO WEAKEN, VALIDATING THE PRESENT 6-HOUR MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS, ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING COLD SURGE OVER EASTERN ASIAN WATERS, HAS BEGUN TO BUFFET THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TYPHOON. A WEAK INFLUX OF STRATOCUMULUS IS SNAKING IN TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE TYPHOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS INDICATE THE SURGE HAS YET TO MODIFY THE TROPICAL MARITIME AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH TY 16W. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD RANGE FROM A T4.0 TO A T4.5. THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY REFLECTS THE NUMERICAL AVERAGE OF THESE ESTIMATES. MORE RECENTLY DEEP CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DEPLETED OVER THE CENTER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THE NEXT FORECAST WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ASSESSED AS A WEAKER SYSTEM INITIALLY, WHICH WOULD THEN REPLICATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS STABILIZED SOME AS GFDN AND WBAR HAVE COME IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE PACKING. BEYOND TAU 48 NOGAPS AND GFDN DIVERGE WESTWARD FROM THE PACKING AND ILLOGICALLY DRIVE THE TY INTO THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER SASEBO. JGSM AND EGRR (BEYOND TAU 72) TRACK THE SYSTEM ESPECIALLY SLOW, PERHAPS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE SURGE. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS STILL FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND TAU 96 AND COMPLETE BY 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.