From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Oct 26 18:11:28 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9QABRmk000794 for ; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 18:11:28 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9Q50RKI021767; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 05:11:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4057595 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 05:11:13 -0500 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9QABDRl021855 for ; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 05:11:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9QAB6Wd010933 for ; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 05:11:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id DE87C4050022; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 05:11:06 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101026101106.DE87C4050022@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2010 05:11:06 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/prognostic Reasoning For Typhoon 16w Warning Nr 19 Corrected// To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WDPN32 PGTW 260300 COR MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W WARNING NR 19 CORRECTED// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE INTENSIFICATION. A 252132Z 37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE AND CONVECTIVE BANDING. INFRARED ANIMATION SHOWS A SHARP INCREASE IN COLD TOPS OVER THE LLCC DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND 77 KNOTS FROM RJTD. IN ADDITION TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WELL-DEVELOPED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW PERSISTS. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. HOWEVER, TRACK SPEEDS AFTER TAU 72 HAVE BEEN INCREASED. B. TY CHABA WILL TRACK POLEWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 48. THE TY WILL INTENSIFY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN, ENHANCES POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GFDN, FORMERLY AN OUTLIER TO THE WEST, HAS NOW JOINED THE PACK AND IS TRACKING THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF OKINAWA. C. A COLD SURGE OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HAS BROUGHT MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR DEEP INTO THE THEATER. TY CHABA IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE AND TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, AFTER TAU 72, WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DURING THE SAME PERIOD THE TY WILL BE TRACKING OVER A REGION OF DECLINING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, BUT NOGAPS AND EGRR APPEAR TO BE MISHANDLING THE TRACK SOMEWHAT. THESE MODELS BOTH STEER THE TY OVER SHIKOKU AND INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN, PUNCHING IT THROUGH A 100 KNOT POLAR FRONT JET. THE FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS, TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE MODELS. CONSENSUS IS ALSO SLIGHTLY SLOWER, BUT VERY CLOSE TO ECMWF. ECMWF HAS HANDLED THE TY'S TRACK BEST AMONG THE OTHER MODELS. 4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED FOR NUMEROUS SPELLING, GRAMMATICAL AND SYNTAX ERRORS.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.