From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Oct 27 05:05:35 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9QL5XiQ017893 for ; Wed, 27 Oct 2010 05:05:34 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9QHD1a4021767; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 16:05:18 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4070124 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 16:05:18 -0500 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9QL5Ilq004142 for ; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 16:05:18 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9QL5B8m009840 for ; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 16:05:18 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 37E0D4050024; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 16:05:11 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101026210511.37E0D4050024@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2010 16:05:11 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 16w (chaba) Warning Nr 022 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN32 PGTW 262100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 261800Z --- NEAR 20.4N 127.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 127.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 21.2N 127.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 22.4N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 23.7N 127.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 25.1N 128.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 28.6N 130.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 33.3N 135.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 39.0N 142.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 262100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 127.4E. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, WHICH HAS AIDED INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND AN OFF-HOUR 26/1930Z PGTW ESTIMATE OF 102 KNOTS. A BUILDING EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS FORCED THE SYSTEM ONTO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, RESULTING IN A TIGHTER CPA TO OKINAWA. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE STORM TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH. CHABA IS EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY AS IT CRESTS THE RIDGE NEAR TAU 36 AND BEGINS ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS BEEN MINIMAL THUS FAR BUT WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY ONCE THE STORM CROSSES 25 NORTH, WHERE IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 BUT THE MAJORITY STEER THE SYSTEM EAST OF OKINAWA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. 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