Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 16w (chaba) Warning Nr 022

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2010 16:05:11 -0500

WTPN32 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 022
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261800Z --- NEAR 20.4N 127.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 127.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 21.2N 127.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 22.4N 127.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 23.7N 127.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 25.1N 128.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 28.6N 130.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 33.3N 135.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z --- 39.0N 142.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 127.4E.
TYPHOON 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, WHICH HAS AIDED
INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD
AND AN OFF-HOUR 26/1930Z PGTW ESTIMATE OF 102 KNOTS.
A BUILDING EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS FORCED
THE SYSTEM ONTO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS,
RESULTING IN A TIGHTER CPA TO OKINAWA. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE IS NOW
SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE STORM TO MAKE A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH. CHABA IS EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY
AS IT CRESTS THE RIDGE NEAR TAU 36 AND BEGINS ITS NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK. INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS BEEN MINIMAL THUS
FAR BUT WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY ONCE THE STORM CROSSES
25 NORTH, WHERE IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TRACK THROUGH
TAU 48 BUT THE MAJORITY STEER THE SYSTEM EAST OF OKINAWA.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z.//

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