Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2010 16:08:51 -0500

206 
FXPQ60 PGUM 262108
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
708 AM CHST WED OCT 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA
THIS MORNING. EARLIER THIS MORNING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OBSERVED NEAR GUAM BUT THESE ENDED BEFORE SUNRISE. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGE TO FORECAST. EAST TRADE-WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS KEEP SHOWER ISOLATED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW NEAR 12N155E IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST AN SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER
IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND NO MAJOR INCREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST SWELL HAS ENTERED THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE SURF EVENT WELL. A
SURF OF 5 TO 7 FEET ON NORTH FACING REEFS IS PREDICTED ON NORTH
FACING REEFS AND AN EARLY MORNING SURF OBSERVATION RECORDED THE
SURF AROUND 6 FEET. A NORTHWEST SWELL FROM DISTANT TYPHOON CHABA
IS PREDICTED TO REACH THE REGION SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. THIS SWELL
WILL PROBABLY NOT BE TOO LARGE AND WILL ONLY INCREASE SURF ON
NORTH AND WEST FACING REEFS A SMALL BIT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
HEAVY CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR MAJURO THIS MORNING BUT IS SHOWING 
SIGNS OF STRATIFICATION. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED TO 
THE MORNING FORECAST FOR MAJURO. THIS WEATHER WILL PASS JUST SOUTH 
OF KWAJALEIN TOWARDS KOSRAE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW. MOSTLY CLOUDY 
SKIES WERE ADDED THROUGH THE WEEK FOR KOSRAE AS SHOWERS HAVE 
DEVELOPED SOUTHWARD CLOSE TO 1N TO 2N. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY 
BUILD INTO POHNPEI TODAY. AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF POHNPEI COULD HELP 
PRODUCE HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT ITS INFLUENCE WILL MOVE WEST TOWARDS 
CHUUK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT YAP WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON 
AS A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND 
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER TOMORROW. MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATE MOST ACTION WILL PASS JUST SOUTH. WEATHER OF THE 
LAST DAY OR TWO IS HOLDING STEADY AT KOROR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND 
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WW3 WAVE MODEL CONTINUES TO BUILD IN A 
NW SWELL FROM TY CHABA...ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND BUILDING INTO 
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY REQUIRING HIGH SURF ADVISORIES BY THEN. CHUUK 
REMAINS STATUS QUO...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT. 
AN UPPER LOW PASSING NORTH COULD PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT

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