From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Oct 27 05:09:12 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9QL9APN018075 for ; Wed, 27 Oct 2010 05:09:11 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9QHD1aR021767; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 16:08:58 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4070189 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 16:08:57 -0500 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9QL8vvr004535 for ; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 16:08:57 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9QL8pon002670 for ; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 16:08:57 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 15D084050025; Tue, 26 Oct 2010 16:08:51 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101026210851.15D084050025@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2010 16:08:51 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 206 FXPQ60 PGUM 262108 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 708 AM CHST WED OCT 27 2010 .SYNOPSIS...RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. EARLIER THIS MORNING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED NEAR GUAM BUT THESE ENDED BEFORE SUNRISE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THE DAY. && .DISCUSSION... NO CHANGE TO FORECAST. EAST TRADE-WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS KEEP SHOWER ISOLATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW NEAR 12N155E IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST AN SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND NO MAJOR INCREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. && .MARINE... NORTHEAST SWELL HAS ENTERED THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE SURF EVENT WELL. A SURF OF 5 TO 7 FEET ON NORTH FACING REEFS IS PREDICTED ON NORTH FACING REEFS AND AN EARLY MORNING SURF OBSERVATION RECORDED THE SURF AROUND 6 FEET. A NORTHWEST SWELL FROM DISTANT TYPHOON CHABA IS PREDICTED TO REACH THE REGION SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. THIS SWELL WILL PROBABLY NOT BE TOO LARGE AND WILL ONLY INCREASE SURF ON NORTH AND WEST FACING REEFS A SMALL BIT. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... HEAVY CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR MAJURO THIS MORNING BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF STRATIFICATION. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED TO THE MORNING FORECAST FOR MAJURO. THIS WEATHER WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF KWAJALEIN TOWARDS KOSRAE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE ADDED THROUGH THE WEEK FOR KOSRAE AS SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTHWARD CLOSE TO 1N TO 2N. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO POHNPEI TODAY. AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF POHNPEI COULD HELP PRODUCE HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT ITS INFLUENCE WILL MOVE WEST TOWARDS CHUUK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT YAP WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER TOMORROW. MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE MOST ACTION WILL PASS JUST SOUTH. WEATHER OF THE LAST DAY OR TWO IS HOLDING STEADY AT KOROR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WW3 WAVE MODEL CONTINUES TO BUILD IN A NW SWELL FROM TY CHABA...ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY AND BUILDING INTO SATURDAY...POSSIBLY REQUIRING HIGH SURF ADVISORIES BY THEN. CHUUK REMAINS STATUS QUO...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW PASSING NORTH COULD PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW NIGHT. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.