From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Oct 27 14:02:19 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9R62I0a005676 for ; Wed, 27 Oct 2010 14:02:19 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9R3WWEI021767; Wed, 27 Oct 2010 01:02:02 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4078114 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 27 Oct 2010 01:02:01 -0500 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9R620nI013952 for ; Wed, 27 Oct 2010 01:02:00 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9R61ssf020100 for ; Wed, 27 Oct 2010 01:02:00 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 16CF74050023; Wed, 27 Oct 2010 01:01:54 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101027060154.16CF74050023@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 27 Oct 2010 01:01:54 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 636 FXPQ60 PGUM 270601 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 401 PM CHST WED OCT 27 2010 .SYNOPSIS...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW VERY QUIET WEATHER NEAR AND UPSTREAM OF THE MARIANAS. && .DISCUSSION...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN SO LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. && .MARINE...ASCAT SHOWS WINDS ARE LIGHT NEARBY. ALTIMETRY SHOWS SMALL AREAS OF 8 FT WAVES IN THE REGION...BUT WAVES WERE MOSTLY AROUND 6 FT. IPAN BUOY SHOWS 4 FT WAVES AND MOST SURF REPORTS INDICATE 4 TO 6 FT SURF ALONG NORTH AND EAST SHORES. CONTINUED PREV GRIDS AT THIS TIME...BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED ADJUSTMENTS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SWELL DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NW PACIFIC FROM BOTH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EAST OF JAPAN AND FROM TY CHABA. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE FLARED OVER THE RMI LAST NIGHT AND SATELLITE SHOWS IT HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD AND WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS KOSRAE AND POHNPEI DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND GFS INDICATES ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DATE LINE TOWARD MAJURO THIS WEEKEND. THE FOCUS OF THE ITCZ AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS ALONG 6N-7N AND KOSRAE SURFACE WINDS WILL TEND TO PERSIST FROM SE. IN GENERAL...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS AREA. MAJURO BUOY KALO SHOWS MIXED LONG-PERIOD SEAS 4 FT/14 SEC FROM NNW AND SE. WILL NUDGE UP THE FORECAST TO A RANGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET FOR MAJURO MARINE ZONE IN THE NEAR TERM...BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT THIS WEEKEND. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOCUSED BETWEEN 3N AND 8N FROM 140E TO 150E. MODELS DO NOT INITIALIZE REAL WELL...BUT SEEM TO INDICATE THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL DRIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN. CHUUK...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS FOR NOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS MIGHT ARRIVE FROM EAST ABOUT THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS NORTH OF CHUUK. ALTIMETRY AND WW3 WAVE MODEL CONTINUE TO INDICATE LARGER NW TO N SWELL FROM TY CHABA WILL LIKELY ARRIVE IN THE YAP AND PALAU AREAS BY THU OR FRI...AND THIS MIGHT REQUIRE HIGH SURF ADV BY THEN. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ DEVITA/SIMPSON +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.