Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 27 Oct 2010 01:01:54 -0500

636 
FXPQ60 PGUM 270601
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
401 PM CHST WED OCT 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW VERY QUIET WEATHER NEAR AND
UPSTREAM OF THE MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN SO LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...ASCAT SHOWS WINDS ARE LIGHT NEARBY. ALTIMETRY SHOWS
SMALL AREAS OF 8 FT WAVES IN THE REGION...BUT WAVES WERE MOSTLY
AROUND 6 FT. IPAN BUOY SHOWS 4 FT WAVES AND MOST SURF REPORTS
INDICATE 4 TO 6 FT SURF ALONG NORTH AND EAST SHORES. CONTINUED
PREV GRIDS AT THIS TIME...BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED ADJUSTMENTS
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SWELL DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NW PACIFIC FROM
BOTH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EAST OF JAPAN AND FROM TY CHABA.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE FLARED OVER THE RMI LAST NIGHT AND 
SATELLITE SHOWS IT HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD AND WEAKENING THIS 
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS KOSRAE AND POHNPEI 
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND GFS INDICATES ANOTHER DISTURBANCE 
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DATE LINE TOWARD MAJURO THIS WEEKEND. THE FOCUS 
OF THE ITCZ AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS ALONG 6N-7N AND KOSRAE 
SURFACE WINDS WILL TEND TO PERSIST FROM SE. IN GENERAL...A MOIST 
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS AREA.

MAJURO BUOY KALO SHOWS MIXED LONG-PERIOD SEAS 4 FT/14 SEC FROM
NNW AND SE. WILL NUDGE UP THE FORECAST TO A RANGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET
FOR MAJURO MARINE ZONE IN THE NEAR TERM...BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOCUSED 
BETWEEN 3N AND 8N FROM 140E TO 150E. MODELS DO NOT INITIALIZE REAL 
WELL...BUT SEEM TO INDICATE THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL DRIFT WESTWARD 
AND WEAKEN. CHUUK...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS FOR NOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
MIGHT ARRIVE FROM EAST ABOUT THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF A MORE 
FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS NORTH OF CHUUK.

ALTIMETRY AND WW3 WAVE MODEL CONTINUE TO INDICATE LARGER NW TO N 
SWELL FROM TY CHABA WILL LIKELY ARRIVE IN THE YAP AND PALAU AREAS
BY THU OR FRI...AND THIS MIGHT REQUIRE HIGH SURF ADV BY THEN.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

DEVITA/SIMPSON

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