From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Oct 27 16:45:24 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9R8jNjE011365 for ; Wed, 27 Oct 2010 16:45:23 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9R3WWHA021767; Wed, 27 Oct 2010 03:45:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4079554 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 27 Oct 2010 03:45:13 -0500 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9R8jDg7024392 for ; Wed, 27 Oct 2010 03:45:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9R8j628019027 for ; Wed, 27 Oct 2010 03:45:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id B12CF4050023; Wed, 27 Oct 2010 03:45:06 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101027084506.B12CF4050023@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 27 Oct 2010 03:45:06 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 16w (chaba) Warning Nr 024 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN32 PGTW 270900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 21.7N 127.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 127.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 22.9N 127.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 24.4N 128.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 26.1N 128.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 28.3N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 33.7N 135.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 22 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 39.1N 144.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 43.3N 155.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 270900Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 127.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT LOCATION BASED ON A VISIBLE 10 NM RAGGED EYE. RECENT 500 MB CHARTS INDICATE THE WESTERN FINGER OF THE DEEP LAYER STEERING RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN INHIBITING A NORTHWARD TURN HAS SUFFICIENTLY ERODED. THIS WEAKENING WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED POLEWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. DESPITE IMPRESSIVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD RANGE FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE TY HAVE LIKELY MODERATED INTENSIFICATION. IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD SURGE INTO ITS CENTER FROM THE WEST. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS, INDICATIVE OF A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS, CAN BE SEEN WRAPPING BENEATH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ELEVATES CONSIDERABLY TO THE NORTH OF OKINAWA AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE TY MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL STILL BEGIN AROUND TAU 48 (NORTH OF OKINAWA) AND COMPLETE SOUTH OF KYOTO. BEYOND TAU 72 THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES AS IT SKIRTS SOUTHERN HONSHU. THE FORECAST REMAINS FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 36, BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.