Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 16w (chaba) Warning Nr 024

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 27 Oct 2010 03:45:06 -0500

WTPN32 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 024
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270600Z --- NEAR 21.7N 127.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 127.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 22.9N 127.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 24.4N 128.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 26.1N 128.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 28.3N 130.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 33.7N 135.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z --- 39.1N 144.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z --- 43.3N 155.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 127.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT LOCATION
BASED ON A VISIBLE 10 NM RAGGED EYE. RECENT 500 MB CHARTS INDICATE
THE WESTERN FINGER OF THE DEEP LAYER STEERING RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
INHIBITING A NORTHWARD TURN HAS SUFFICIENTLY ERODED. THIS WEAKENING
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED POLEWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
DESPITE IMPRESSIVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED LITTLE
SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
RJTD RANGE FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE
NORTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE TY HAVE LIKELY MODERATED
INTENSIFICATION. IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL MODIFIED
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD SURGE INTO ITS CENTER
FROM THE WEST. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS, INDICATIVE OF A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS, CAN BE SEEN WRAPPING BENEATH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ELEVATES CONSIDERABLY TO THE NORTH OF OKINAWA AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE
TY MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL
STILL BEGIN AROUND TAU 48 (NORTH OF OKINAWA) AND COMPLETE SOUTH OF
KYOTO. BEYOND TAU 72 THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE INTO
THE MID-LATITUDES AS IT SKIRTS SOUTHERN HONSHU. THE FORECAST REMAINS
FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 36, BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST
AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//

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