Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 16w (chaba) Warning Nr 026

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 27 Oct 2010 16:05:05 -0500

WTPN32 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 026
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271800Z --- NEAR 23.3N 128.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 128.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 24.7N 128.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 26.2N 129.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 28.0N 131.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 30.5N 133.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 36.0N 140.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z --- 41.3N 150.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 128.4E.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN 18 NM EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES,
AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS. DUAL
OUTFLOW CHANNELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.
POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS VIGOROUS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. TY 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF A DEEP LAYER STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST. TY 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING RIDGE TOWARDS A TROUGH-INDUCED
WEAKNESS. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, DUE TO SUSTAINED DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. AROUND TAU 24
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR JET SOUTH OF
JAPAN AND DECREASED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT CRESTS THE STEERING RIDGE AND BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 36 AS IT INTERACTS WITH A
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RUNNING SOUTH OF JAPAN. JUST AFTER TAU 48, TY
16W SHOULD FULLY TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BEFORE
REACHING MAINLAND JAPAN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.//

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