From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Oct 28 05:06:15 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9RL6Ejh027547 for ; Thu, 28 Oct 2010 05:06:15 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9RHpuO6021767; Wed, 27 Oct 2010 16:05:58 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4092261 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 27 Oct 2010 16:05:57 -0500 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9RL5vca007410 for ; Wed, 27 Oct 2010 16:05:57 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9RL5n79005209 for ; Wed, 27 Oct 2010 16:05:56 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 135044050027; Wed, 27 Oct 2010 16:05:05 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101027210506.135044050027@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 27 Oct 2010 16:05:05 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 16w (chaba) Warning Nr 026 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN32 PGTW 272100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 23.3N 128.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 128.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 24.7N 128.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 26.2N 129.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 28.0N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 30.5N 133.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 36.0N 140.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 25 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 41.3N 150.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 128.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN 18 NM EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS. DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS VIGOROUS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. TY 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF A DEEP LAYER STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TY 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING RIDGE TOWARDS A TROUGH-INDUCED WEAKNESS. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, DUE TO SUSTAINED DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. AROUND TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR JET SOUTH OF JAPAN AND DECREASED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT CRESTS THE STEERING RIDGE AND BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 36 AS IT INTERACTS WITH A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RUNNING SOUTH OF JAPAN. JUST AFTER TAU 48, TY 16W SHOULD FULLY TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BEFORE REACHING MAINLAND JAPAN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.