From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Oct 28 15:52:38 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9S7qbHO014677 for ; Thu, 28 Oct 2010 15:52:38 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9RHpu1J021767; Thu, 28 Oct 2010 02:52:18 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4099814 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 28 Oct 2010 02:52:18 -0500 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9S7qHK5023653 for ; Thu, 28 Oct 2010 02:52:17 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9S7qBqq014551 for ; Thu, 28 Oct 2010 02:52:17 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 6D4CE4050024; Thu, 28 Oct 2010 02:52:11 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101028075211.6D4CE4050024@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2010 02:52:11 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 16w (chaba) Warning Nr 028 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN32 PGTW 280900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 028 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 24.8N 129.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.8N 129.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 26.3N 130.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 28.0N 132.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 30.1N 134.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 33.1N 137.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 38.6N 146.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 32 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 45.8N 161.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 25.2N 129.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SUSTAINED AN ENLARGED, SYMMETRIC 35 NM EYE AND TIGHTLY WRAPPED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE 280530Z PGTW EYE FIX AND KADENA RADAR FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 127 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT HAS HELPED THE SYSTEM MAINTAIN ITS HIGH INTENSITY. TY 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD, COMMENCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) BY TAU 36 AND COMPLETE ET BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM SHOULD START WEAKENING WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST, AND DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. AROUND TAU 24, TY CHABA SHOULD START TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, HOWEVER THIS FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT AND AHEAD OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TENDENCY OF THE CONSENSUS TO BE SLOW IN A RECURVATURE SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. 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