Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 16w (chaba) Warning Nr 028

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2010 02:52:11 -0500

WTPN32 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 028
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280600Z --- NEAR 24.8N 129.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.8N 129.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 26.3N 130.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 28.0N 132.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 30.1N 134.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 33.1N 137.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z --- 38.6N 146.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 32 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z --- 45.8N 161.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 25.2N 129.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS SUSTAINED AN ENLARGED, SYMMETRIC 35 NM EYE AND TIGHTLY
WRAPPED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE 280530Z PGTW EYE FIX AND
KADENA RADAR FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY PGTW, KNES,
AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 127 KNOTS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT HAS HELPED
THE SYSTEM MAINTAIN ITS HIGH INTENSITY. TY 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD,
COMMENCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) BY TAU 36 AND COMPLETE ET BY
TAU 72. THE SYSTEM SHOULD START WEAKENING WITH INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST, AND DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. AROUND TAU 24, TY CHABA
SHOULD START TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, HOWEVER THIS FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT AND AHEAD OF
MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TENDENCY OF THE CONSENSUS TO BE
SLOW IN A RECURVATURE SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND
290900Z.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.