Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2010 02:58:02 -0500

920 
FXPQ60 PGUM 280757
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
557 PM CHST THU OCT 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...EXCEPT FOR AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF GUAM...SATELLITE AND
RADAR SHOW VERY QUIET WEATHER NEAR AND UPSTREAM OF THE MARIANAS.
THIS EVENING...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN IN THE MARINE ZONES. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN SO LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE UPPER
LOW WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A SHORT PERIOD OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT HAS THE LAST TWO NIGHTS AROUND 4 AM. 

&&

.MARINE...TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST. THIS IS GENERATING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON
NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS. SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH DISTANT TYPHOON
CHABA IS SPREADING ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE MAIN PART OF THE
SWELL WILL PUSH DOWN TO PALAU AND YAP WHILE THE MARIANAS WILL ONLY
BE ON THE EDGE OF THE SWELL. EXPECT A NORTHWEST SWELL OF ABOUT 3 FEET
TO ENTER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
HAVE NOT UPDATED PREVIOUS ESTIMATES OF 4 TO 6 FOOT SURF ON THE WEST
FACING REEFS BECAUSE WAVE-WATCH MODELS HAVE NOT UPDATED SINCE THE
PRIOR CALCULATIONS AND A CLEARER FETCH NEEDS TO BE GENERATED. 

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THIS AREA. 
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT MOVE FROM ACROSS THE DATE LINE INTO THE
RMI THIS WEEKEND...OTHERWISE LIGHT E TO SE WINDS AND MAINLY JUST
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NEAR TERM AND LONGER TERM.

MAJURO BUOY KALO SHOWS MIXED SEAS 5 FT/12 SEC FROM NNE AND SE. WW3 
MODEL AND ALTIMETRY INDICATE COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD A COUPLE FEET 
FROM NE AND N ACROSS THE RMI DURING THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
HIGH SURF ADV CONTINUES FOR BOTH YAP AND PALAU. LARGE NORTH SWELL 
FROM TY CHABA WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...MODERATELY 
STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO TRIGGER AREAS OF SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN MICRONESIA. SPOTTY LIGHTNING WAS OCCASIONALLY 
INDICATED FROM THESE AREAS. SHOWERS LINGER NEAR KOROR AND CHUUK BUT 
HAVE MOVED MOSTLY SE OF YAP. MODELS INDICATE GRADUALLY IMPROVING 
WEATHER AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

DEVITA/SIMPSON

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