From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Oct 28 15:58:24 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9S7wMAb015029 for ; Thu, 28 Oct 2010 15:58:23 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9RHpu1N021767; Thu, 28 Oct 2010 02:58:10 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4099831 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 28 Oct 2010 02:58:09 -0500 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9S7w9HZ023909 for ; Thu, 28 Oct 2010 02:58:09 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9S7w2pb018664 for ; Thu, 28 Oct 2010 02:58:09 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id DD0B44050024; Thu, 28 Oct 2010 02:58:02 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101028075802.DD0B44050024@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2010 02:58:02 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 920 FXPQ60 PGUM 280757 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 557 PM CHST THU OCT 28 2010 .SYNOPSIS...EXCEPT FOR AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF GUAM...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW VERY QUIET WEATHER NEAR AND UPSTREAM OF THE MARIANAS. THIS EVENING...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN IN THE MARINE ZONES. && .DISCUSSION...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN SO LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A SHORT PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS AS IT HAS THE LAST TWO NIGHTS AROUND 4 AM. && .MARINE...TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS GENERATING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS. SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH DISTANT TYPHOON CHABA IS SPREADING ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE MAIN PART OF THE SWELL WILL PUSH DOWN TO PALAU AND YAP WHILE THE MARIANAS WILL ONLY BE ON THE EDGE OF THE SWELL. EXPECT A NORTHWEST SWELL OF ABOUT 3 FEET TO ENTER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. HAVE NOT UPDATED PREVIOUS ESTIMATES OF 4 TO 6 FOOT SURF ON THE WEST FACING REEFS BECAUSE WAVE-WATCH MODELS HAVE NOT UPDATED SINCE THE PRIOR CALCULATIONS AND A CLEARER FETCH NEEDS TO BE GENERATED. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA...QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THIS AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT MOVE FROM ACROSS THE DATE LINE INTO THE RMI THIS WEEKEND...OTHERWISE LIGHT E TO SE WINDS AND MAINLY JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NEAR TERM AND LONGER TERM. MAJURO BUOY KALO SHOWS MIXED SEAS 5 FT/12 SEC FROM NNE AND SE. WW3 MODEL AND ALTIMETRY INDICATE COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD A COUPLE FEET FROM NE AND N ACROSS THE RMI DURING THIS WEEKEND. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... HIGH SURF ADV CONTINUES FOR BOTH YAP AND PALAU. LARGE NORTH SWELL FROM TY CHABA WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO TRIGGER AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN MICRONESIA. SPOTTY LIGHTNING WAS OCCASIONALLY INDICATED FROM THESE AREAS. SHOWERS LINGER NEAR KOROR AND CHUUK BUT HAVE MOVED MOSTLY SE OF YAP. MODELS INDICATE GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ DEVITA/SIMPSON +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.