Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 16w (chaba) Warning Nr 030

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2010 15:46:05 -0500

WTPN32 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 030
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281800Z --- NEAR 26.4N 130.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.4N 130.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 28.2N 132.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 30.4N 134.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 32.8N 137.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 35.6N 142.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z --- 41.4N 153.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 26.9N 131.2E.
TYPHOON 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
281646Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION AND THE LOSS OF AN EYE WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A PGTW FIX AND RADAR FIX FROM JAPAN
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND
KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 115.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 35 KNOTS) AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (26 DEGREES CELSIUS). TY 16W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TY 16W WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO
DECEASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST. WITHIN 12 HOURS, TY CHABA IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. BY TAU 36, TY 16W SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, JUST SOUTH OF MAINLAND JAPAN, AND FULLY TRANSITION
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT;
THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//

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