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Typhoon 16w (chaba) Warning Nr 030 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN32 PGTW 282100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 030 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 26.4N 130.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.4N 130.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 28.2N 132.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 30.4N 134.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 32.8N 137.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 23 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 35.6N 142.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 41.4N 153.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 26.9N 131.2E. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281646Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND THE LOSS OF AN EYE WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A PGTW FIX AND RADAR FIX FROM JAPAN WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 115. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 35 KNOTS) AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26 DEGREES CELSIUS). TY 16W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TY 16W WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO DECEASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. WITHIN 12 HOURS, TY CHABA IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. BY TAU 36, TY 16W SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, JUST SOUTH OF MAINLAND JAPAN, AND FULLY TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. 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