From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Oct 29 04:49:19 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9SKnIV8025525 for ; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 04:49:18 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9S8U9vl021767; Thu, 28 Oct 2010 15:48:50 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4109714 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 28 Oct 2010 15:48:50 -0500 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9SKmnMA000876 for ; Thu, 28 Oct 2010 15:48:49 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9SKmh6c016412 for ; Thu, 28 Oct 2010 15:48:49 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 31142405001F; Thu, 28 Oct 2010 15:48:43 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101028204843.31142405001F@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2010 15:48:43 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 323 FXPQ60 PGUM 282048 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 648 AM CHST FRI OCT 29 2010 .SYNOPSIS...THIS MORNING RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS GUAM AND ROTA. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EAST TRADE-WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .DISCUSSION... A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN DEVELOPED NEAR GUAM AND ROTA THIS MORNING. THESE WILL MOST LIKELY DECREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SOME UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS MAY SPARK OFF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FIGURE THE ODDS ARE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE THE RULE AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK. ECMWF HINTS AT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS NEXT WEDNESDAY...BUT TOO EARLY TO ADD THIS TO THE FORECAST. BASIC EAST TRADE-WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. && .MARINE...NORTHEAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST. STILL EXPECT THE ARRIVAL OF THE NORTHWEST SWELL TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD INCREASE SURF ON WEST FACING REEFS BY ABOUT TWO FEET. THIS NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH DEPARTING CHUUK THIS MORNING. CONVERGING E-SE TO SE WINDS EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE COUPLING WITH DIVERGENT WINDS SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 14N. THIS HAS TRIGGERED INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM CHUUK EASTWARD TO KOSRAE...AND THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN A TRADE SURGE IS APPROACHING THE MARSHALL ISLANDS FROM THE DATE LINE. ANTICIPATE THICKENING CLOUDS OVER MAJURO THRU THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE WESTWARD PASSING JUST NORTH OF KOSRAE AND PROLONG WET WEATHER OVER BOTH POHNPEI AND CHUUK THRU THE WEEKEND. FOR MAJURO AND KOSRAE...A DRY TRADE SURGE CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE DATE LINE OVER THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MIGHT PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVOKE SPORADIC CONVECTION OVER PALAU AND YAP THRU MUCH OF THIS WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR MINDANAO WEAKENS FURTHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...UNRESTRICTED TRADE- WIND FLOW SHOULD RESUME ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING BACK ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWER REGIME. LONG-PERIOD SWELL GENERATED BY DISTANT TYPHOON CHABA WILL KEEP HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG THE WEST AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF BOTH PALAU AND YAP THRU AT LEAST SUNDAY. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.