Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2010 15:48:43 -0500

323 
FXPQ60 PGUM 282048
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
648 AM CHST FRI OCT 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THIS MORNING RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS GUAM AND
ROTA. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EAST TRADE-WINDS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN DEVELOPED NEAR GUAM AND ROTA THIS MORNING.
THESE WILL MOST LIKELY DECREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN
ISOLATED THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SOME
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS
A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS MAY SPARK OFF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
FIGURE THE ODDS ARE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE THE RULE AT LEAST THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK. ECMWF HINTS AT AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS NEXT WEDNESDAY...BUT TOO EARLY TO ADD THIS TO THE
FORECAST. BASIC EAST TRADE-WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST. STILL EXPECT THE ARRIVAL OF THE NORTHWEST SWELL TONIGHT.
THIS SHOULD INCREASE SURF ON WEST FACING REEFS BY ABOUT TWO FEET.
THIS NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. 

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH
DEPARTING CHUUK THIS MORNING. CONVERGING E-SE TO SE WINDS EAST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE COUPLING WITH DIVERGENT WINDS SOUTH OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 14N. THIS HAS TRIGGERED INCREASING
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM CHUUK EASTWARD TO KOSRAE...AND THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A TRADE SURGE IS APPROACHING THE MARSHALL ISLANDS FROM THE
DATE LINE. ANTICIPATE THICKENING CLOUDS OVER MAJURO THRU THIS
EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE WESTWARD PASSING JUST NORTH
OF KOSRAE AND PROLONG WET WEATHER OVER BOTH POHNPEI AND CHUUK
THRU THE WEEKEND. FOR MAJURO AND KOSRAE...A DRY TRADE SURGE
CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE DATE LINE OVER THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MIGHT PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVOKE SPORADIC CONVECTION OVER PALAU AND YAP
THRU MUCH OF THIS WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
MINDANAO WEAKENS FURTHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...UNRESTRICTED TRADE-
WIND FLOW SHOULD RESUME ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING BACK ISOLATED
TRADE-WIND SHOWER REGIME. LONG-PERIOD SWELL GENERATED BY DISTANT
TYPHOON CHABA WILL KEEP HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG THE WEST AND NORTH
FACING SHORES OF BOTH PALAU AND YAP THRU AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN

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