Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 16w (chaba) Warning Nr 032

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2010 01:51:07 -0500

WTPN32 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 032
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   290600Z --- NEAR 28.3N 132.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 28.3N 132.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 30.6N 135.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 33.0N 138.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 36.0N 142.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 34 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z --- 39.3N 150.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 28.9N 133.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTHWEST OF
TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 290519Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A STEADY DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND
ELONGATION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE ALSO ADVECTING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS SEEN ON
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
ABOVE ANIMATION AND SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 77 TO 102 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 35
KNOTS) AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26 DEGREES CELSIUS). TY
16W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT CURRENTLY TRACKS
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. TY CHABA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. IT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AFTER TAU 12 AND
COMPLETE ET BY TAU 36. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT, EXCEPT
FOR GFDN, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY TRACKS THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE FLOW. THIS FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF AND FASTER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GFDN TRACK ERROR AND SLOW RECURVATURE
TENDENCY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.//

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