From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Oct 29 14:51:29 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9T6pSDT026311 for ; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 14:51:29 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9SLvlMR021767; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 01:51:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4114512 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 01:51:14 -0500 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9T6pE2k005339 for ; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 01:51:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9T6p7Xn022362 for ; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 01:51:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id C3F60405001E; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 01:51:07 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101029065107.C3F60405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2010 01:51:07 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 16w (chaba) Warning Nr 032 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN32 PGTW 290900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 032 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 28.3N 132.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.3N 132.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 30.6N 135.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 33.0N 138.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 36.0N 142.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 34 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 39.3N 150.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 28.9N 133.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 290519Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A STEADY DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND ELONGATION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ALSO ADVECTING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS SEEN ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 102 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 35 KNOTS) AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26 DEGREES CELSIUS). TY 16W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT CURRENTLY TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. TY CHABA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AFTER TAU 12 AND COMPLETE ET BY TAU 36. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT, EXCEPT FOR GFDN, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY TRACKS THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO THE MID- LATITUDE FLOW. THIS FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF AND FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GFDN TRACK ERROR AND SLOW RECURVATURE TENDENCY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. 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