From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Oct 29 15:55:52 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9T7toPq029523 for ; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 15:55:51 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9SLvlNE021767; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 02:55:27 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4114698 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 02:55:27 -0500 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9T7tRU5008357 for ; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 02:55:27 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9T7tLex015821 for ; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 02:55:27 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 069DF405001E; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 02:55:20 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101029075521.069DF405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2010 02:55:20 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 685 FXPQ60 PGUM 290755 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 555 PM CHST FRI OCT 29 2010 .SYNOPSIS...LATE THIS AFTERNOON A THICK CIRROSTRATUS OVERCAST PERSISTS OVER GUAM. VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THICK CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF GUAM STRATIFYING OUT. GRADIENT WIND ANALYSIS SHOWS TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF GUAM MOVING WESTWARD. RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE GUAM AND ROTA MARINE ZONES. UPSTREAM FARTHER EAST...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO ABOUT 160E. && .DISCUSSION...THE ABOVE MENTIONED CIRRUS DEBRIS SHOULD MOVE WEST OF THE MARIANAS LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOW REVEALS THAT THE UPPER-LOW THAT WAS SOUTH OF GUAM AND MOVING WESTWARD LAST NIGHT...IS NOW WEST OF GUAM AND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. THIS COULD PLACE THE MARIANAS SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECASTS. OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PREVIOUS BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN UNTIL ABOUT WEDNESDAY. SO LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE...AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF WETTER CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE. && .MARINE...NORTHEAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST. STILL EXPECT THE ARRIVAL OF THE NORTHWEST SWELL BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD INCREASE SURF ON WEST FACING REEFS BY ABOUT TWO FEET. THIS NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA...SATELLITE SHOWS SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN 5N AND 8N FROM THE RMI EASTWARD ACROSS THE DATE LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE TOWARD KOSRAE OVERNIGHT AND POHNPEI SATURDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A VIGOROUS TUTT CELL NW OF WAKE ISLAND AND IT WAS TRIGGERING SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION IN A LARGE AREA. GFS AND NOGAPS INDICATE THE TUTT CELL WILL MOVE WESTWARD WHILE MUCH CONVECTION OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. ITCZ WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT A RELATIVELY DRIER TRADE-WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK. MAJURO BUOY KALO SHOWS NNE WAVES OF 6 FT/12 SECOND PERIOD. WW3 MODEL INDICATES A LITTLE LARGER TRADE-WIND SEAS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND RECENT ALTIMETRY CONFIRMS AREAS OF 8 FT SEAS NE OF THE RMI. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA...WEATHER WILL BE UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS AREA IN THE NEAR-TERM. A TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE PERSISTS ACROSS WESTERN MICRONESIA. ASCAT ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE INDICATE SHARP TROUGHING SW OF PALAU. A WEAK CIRCULATION MIGHT BE DEVELOPING NEAR 4N131E BUT NOTHING FOR SURE AT THIS TIME. MODELS DIFFER AND SOLUTIONS ARE NOISY. CONT PREV FORECAST TRENDS FOR LIGHT EAST TO SE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS NEXT WEEK. LONG-PERIOD SWELL GENERATED BY DISTANT TYPHOON CHABA WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG WEST AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF BOTH PALAU AND YAP THRU AT LEAST SUNDAY. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ DEVITA/SIMPSON +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.