From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Oct 29 21:01:33 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9TD1WTR015163 for ; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 21:01:33 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9SLvlTJ021767; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 08:01:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4115801 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 08:01:16 -0500 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9TD1GZB024875 for ; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 08:01:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9TD19D9015802 for ; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 08:01:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id A5974405001E; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 08:01:09 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101029130109.A5974405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2010 08:01:09 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/prognostic Reasoning For Typhoon 16w Warning Nr 29// To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WDPN32 PGTW 291500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W WARNING NR 29// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291051Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A STEADY DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND ELONGATION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE TRMM IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 68 TO 90 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 35 KTS) AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26 DEGREES CELSIUS). TY 16W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AS IT CURRENTLY TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY CHABA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. IT HAS BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ET BY TAU 24. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A ROBUST INFLUX OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT, EXCEPT FOR GFDN, WHICH CONTINUES TO ERRONEOUSLY TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THIS FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF AND FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE GFDN TRACK ERROR AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOW RECURVATURE TENDENCY OF THE CONSENSUS.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.