Subject: Pacific-NW: Wind Radii Valid Over Open Water Only

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2010 15:38:04 -0500

WTPN32 PGTW 292100
1. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 034
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291800Z --- NEAR 30.6N 135.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 30.6N 135.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 33.2N 139.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 36.4N 144.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 31.3N 136.6E.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTHWEST OF
TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 291745Z AMSU IMAGE
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS DE-COUPLING
WITH THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER DUE TO STRONG (50+ KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED SOUTH OF HONSHU. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AMSU IMAGE, DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW
AND RJTD, AND RADAR FIXES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD. TY
CHABA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 12. THIS FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF AND FASTER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//

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