From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Oct 30 04:38:23 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9TKcM7U003794 for ; Sat, 30 Oct 2010 04:38:23 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9TIOXDN021767; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 15:38:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4122039 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 15:38:12 -0500 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9TKcBc5027030 for ; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 15:38:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9TKc5ec028657 for ; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 15:38:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 577A7405001F; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 15:38:04 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101029203805.577A7405001F@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2010 15:38:04 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Wind Radii Valid Over Open Water Only To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN32 PGTW 292100 1. TYPHOON 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 034 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z --- NEAR 30.6N 135.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.6N 135.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 33.2N 139.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 36.4N 144.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 292100Z POSITION NEAR 31.3N 136.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 291745Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS DE-COUPLING WITH THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO STRONG (50+ KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED SOUTH OF HONSHU. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AMSU IMAGE, DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD, AND RADAR FIXES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD. TY CHABA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 12. THIS FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF AND FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.