Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2010 15:39:47 -0500

403 
FXPQ60 PGUM 292039
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
639 AM CHST SAT OCT 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
MARIANAS THIS MORNING. ONE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED WEST OF THE
MARIANAS NEAR 17N135E AND ONE IS LOCATED EAST OF THE MARIANAS NEAR
18N160E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS WITH THE LAST FEW MORNINGS...SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MARIANAS AGAIN THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND THE USUAL DIURNAL CYCLE HELPED THESE SHOWERS
DEVELOP. DESPITE THIS ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE THE NORM FOR
THE DAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CONTAINS ISOLATED SHOWERS...
ALTHOUGH THINGS MAYBE CHANGING. THE LAST FEW DAYS THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE OTHER MODELS
HAD TENDED TO KEEP SHOWERS ISOLATED. THE NEWEST ITERATION OF THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS OVER THE MARIANAS WEDNESDAY AND
NOW THE GFS AND NGPS HAS JOINED IT IN SHOWING THESE SHOWERS. WHILE
THE UKMET ONLY GOES OUT TO MONDAY NIGHT IT DOES SHOW SHOWERS JUST
EAST OF 150E ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THIS IS
CONJECTURE...ONE COULD PROJECT THESE SHOWERS OVER THE MARIANAS
SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY. IF ONE SURMISES THAT THE UKMET MAYBE A TAD
FAST THAN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT TOO IS GOING WITH AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR MORE MODEL AGREEMENT
AND ACTUAL WEATHER FEATURES BEFORE CHANGING THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST TRADE-WIND SWELL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST. MODELS STILL HAVE THE NORTHWEST SWELL IN UNTIL AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. SURF EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 7 FEET ON WEST FACING REEFS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. 

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVERGING WINDS EAST OF A DEPARTING TROUGH NEAR CHUUK WILL
CONTINUE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DIVERGENT WINDS ALOFT...AND SUSTAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER CHUUK AND POHNPEI THRU TONIGHT. FARTHER
EAST...AN INTENSE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP INCLEMENT WEATHER OVER THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS TODAY. NEARLY AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN UPON MAJURO
SINCE MIDNIGHT AND ANOTHER INCH OR SO WILL BE LIKELY BY THIS
EVENING. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO CAUSE
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER KOSRAE INTO THIS EVENING AS WELL.
HOWEVER...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH MAJURO AND
KOSRAE BY SUNDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER MUCH DRIER TRADE SURGE FROM
SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR DOMINATES THE AREA. AS FOR POHNPEI AND
CHUUK...THIS SAME DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN RAINY WEATHER AT
LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE DRYING TREND SETS IN TOWARD
MIDWEEK. BUILDING TRADE-WIND SWELLS WILL KEEP HIGHER SURF ALONG
EAST FACING SHORES OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS INTO NEXT WEEK... AND
COULD INTRODUCE A HIGH SURF EVENT FOR KOSRAE BY MONDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
INSTABILITY OVER BOTH YAP AND PALAU IS GOING TO LAST FOR ANOTHER
12 TO 24 HOURS...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS
WESTWARD TOWARD MINDANAO FARTHER AWAY FROM WESTERN MICRONESIA.
THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY FAIRER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION WITH MORE
WETNESS. LONG-PERIOD SWELL GENERATED BY FORMER TYPHOON CHABA WILL
KEEP HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG WEST AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF BOTH
PALAU AND YAP THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN

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