From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Oct 30 04:40:06 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9TKe5ES003829 for ; Sat, 30 Oct 2010 04:40:05 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9SFBBZB000583; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 15:39:54 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4122081 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 15:39:53 -0500 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9TKdrRu027303 for ; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 15:39:53 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9TKdl0W025976 for ; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 15:39:53 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 12DF6405001E; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 15:39:47 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101029203947.12DF6405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2010 15:39:47 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 403 FXPQ60 PGUM 292039 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 639 AM CHST SAT OCT 30 2010 .SYNOPSIS...RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING. ONE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED WEST OF THE MARIANAS NEAR 17N135E AND ONE IS LOCATED EAST OF THE MARIANAS NEAR 18N160E. && .DISCUSSION... AS WITH THE LAST FEW MORNINGS...SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MARIANAS AGAIN THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND THE USUAL DIURNAL CYCLE HELPED THESE SHOWERS DEVELOP. DESPITE THIS ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE THE NORM FOR THE DAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CONTAINS ISOLATED SHOWERS... ALTHOUGH THINGS MAYBE CHANGING. THE LAST FEW DAYS THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAD TENDED TO KEEP SHOWERS ISOLATED. THE NEWEST ITERATION OF THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS OVER THE MARIANAS WEDNESDAY AND NOW THE GFS AND NGPS HAS JOINED IT IN SHOWING THESE SHOWERS. WHILE THE UKMET ONLY GOES OUT TO MONDAY NIGHT IT DOES SHOW SHOWERS JUST EAST OF 150E ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THIS IS CONJECTURE...ONE COULD PROJECT THESE SHOWERS OVER THE MARIANAS SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY. IF ONE SURMISES THAT THE UKMET MAYBE A TAD FAST THAN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT TOO IS GOING WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR MORE MODEL AGREEMENT AND ACTUAL WEATHER FEATURES BEFORE CHANGING THE FORECAST. && .MARINE... EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST TRADE-WIND SWELL EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. MODELS STILL HAVE THE NORTHWEST SWELL IN UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SURF EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 7 FEET ON WEST FACING REEFS THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... CONVERGING WINDS EAST OF A DEPARTING TROUGH NEAR CHUUK WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DIVERGENT WINDS ALOFT...AND SUSTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER CHUUK AND POHNPEI THRU TONIGHT. FARTHER EAST...AN INTENSE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP INCLEMENT WEATHER OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS TODAY. NEARLY AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN UPON MAJURO SINCE MIDNIGHT AND ANOTHER INCH OR SO WILL BE LIKELY BY THIS EVENING. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO CAUSE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER KOSRAE INTO THIS EVENING AS WELL. HOWEVER...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH MAJURO AND KOSRAE BY SUNDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER MUCH DRIER TRADE SURGE FROM SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR DOMINATES THE AREA. AS FOR POHNPEI AND CHUUK...THIS SAME DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN RAINY WEATHER AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE DRYING TREND SETS IN TOWARD MIDWEEK. BUILDING TRADE-WIND SWELLS WILL KEEP HIGHER SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS INTO NEXT WEEK... AND COULD INTRODUCE A HIGH SURF EVENT FOR KOSRAE BY MONDAY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... INSTABILITY OVER BOTH YAP AND PALAU IS GOING TO LAST FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD MINDANAO FARTHER AWAY FROM WESTERN MICRONESIA. THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY FAIRER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION WITH MORE WETNESS. LONG-PERIOD SWELL GENERATED BY FORMER TYPHOON CHABA WILL KEEP HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG WEST AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF BOTH PALAU AND YAP THRU THIS WEEKEND. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.