From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Oct 30 10:46:45 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9U2kiT5024840 for ; Sat, 30 Oct 2010 10:46:45 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9TIOXU6021767; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 21:46:24 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4125289 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 21:46:24 -0500 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9U2kO72020563 for ; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 21:46:24 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9U2kHL4007770 for ; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 21:46:24 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id D2AD64050021; Fri, 29 Oct 2010 21:46:17 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101030024617.D2AD64050021@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2010 21:46:17 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/prognostic Reasoning For Typhoon 16w Warning Nr 35// To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WDPN32 PGTW 300300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W WARNING NR 35// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT THE EYE HAS COLLAPSED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARING NORTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MSI ALSO DEPICTS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH INCREASING ENTRAINMENT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE KANTO PLAIN. TY 16W IS TRACKING UNDER STRONG (50+ KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS BEGUN TO DE-COUPLE. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII ARE BASED PARTLY ON OBSERVATIONS FROM JAPANESE COASTAL STATIONS AND OFF-SHORE ISLANDS REPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 (RJTD, KNES) TO 77 KNOTS (PGTW). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. TYPHOON 16W IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A STORM FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 KNOTS BY 35N AND WILL ACT TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE THE SYSTEM. TYPHOON 16W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTWARD BEARING THROUGH THE DURATION OF ITS TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS. THE SPEED OF TRANSLATION IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE DUE TO INCREASED INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG MID- LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLIES.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.