From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Oct 30 16:49:50 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9U8nnw4012365 for ; Sat, 30 Oct 2010 16:49:49 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9TAjIjm017565; Sat, 30 Oct 2010 03:49:35 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4128510 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 30 Oct 2010 03:49:34 -0500 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9U8nYRo010337 for ; Sat, 30 Oct 2010 03:49:34 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9U8nS12023838 for ; Sat, 30 Oct 2010 03:49:34 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 572304050021; Sat, 30 Oct 2010 03:49:28 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101030084928.572304050021@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2010 03:49:28 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 914 FXPQ60 PGUM 300849 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 649 PM CHST SAT OCT 30 2010 .SYNOPSIS... RADAR...IR IMAGERY AND VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS MARINE ZONES. WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED AT 19N154E APPROACHING THE NORTHERN MARIANAS. && .DISCUSSION... THE FORECASTS MAY BE IN A STATE OF TRANSITION THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LOW. THE MODELS STILL INDICATE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODELS GENERALLY DO NOT HANDLE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEMS WELL. THE EXACT POSITIONING AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW IS THE FORECAST PROBLEM THE NEXT TWO DAYS. OPTED TO GO WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST MISSING GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN TO THE NORTH...AND THE LONGER TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATING LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. && MARINE... SURF OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE NORTHWEST SWELL FROM FORMER TYPHOON CHABA HAS ARRIVED. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING EXPOSURES OF THE MARIANAS THROUGH SUNDAY. SURF OF 8 TO 10 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ON EAST FACING EXPOSURES. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... TRADE-WIND TROUGHS ARE COMBINING WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO FOCUS CONVECTION OVER CHUUK STATE AND ALSO EASTWARD FROM KOSRAE. FORECAST PACKAGE PRODUCED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT REQUIRED ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. LULL IN THE WEATHER OVER POHNPEI IS COMING TO AN END AS SHOWERS CLOSE IN ONCE AGAIN FROM THE EAST. AGREE IN KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL THREE FORECAST LOCATIONS. UPPER-LEVEL LOWS CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY ISLAND AND JUST SOUTH OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA ARE PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM CHUUK EASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL CALLS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN OVER ALL THREE LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE LIFTS NORTHWARD. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... TRADE-WIND TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRANSITING CHUUK STATE. INHERITED FORECAST CALLS FOR ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER TO WIND DOWN BY TOMORROW MORNING OVER WENO ISLAND. REMAINDER OF FORECAST FOR CHUUK LOOKS DRY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA LIFTS NORTHWARD. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SUPPORTS THIS TIMING FOR CHUUK. TUTT CELL NORTH OF KOROR CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE WEST. THIS IS ALLOWING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER YAP AND KOROR TO SUBSIDE. HAVE MADE SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS AT THESE LOCATIONS TO DROP MENTION OF THUNDER AND REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE TO ISOLATED. LATEST ALTIMETRY AND WAVE WATCH TABULAR DATA SHOWS CURRENT HIGH SURF EVENT ON NORTH FACING EXPOSURES IS PEAKING AND SHOULD SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY EVENING. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST SUNDAY FOR GUZ001>004. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ DEVITA/MCELROY +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.