From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Oct 30 17:05:24 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9U95Nfh013456 for ; Sat, 30 Oct 2010 17:05:24 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9U0J4pZ000583; Sat, 30 Oct 2010 04:05:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4128635 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 30 Oct 2010 04:05:14 -0500 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9U95EYB011372 for ; Sat, 30 Oct 2010 04:05:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9U957MN010922 for ; Sat, 30 Oct 2010 04:05:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 913594050021; Sat, 30 Oct 2010 04:05:07 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101030090507.913594050021@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2010 04:05:07 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Extratropical Cyclone 16w (chaba) Warning Nr 036 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN32 PGTW 300900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE 16W (CHABA) WARNING NR 036 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 16W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 300600Z --- NEAR 33.6N 139.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 22 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 33.6N 139.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 36.3N 143.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 39.0N 147.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 300900Z POSITION NEAR 34.3N 140.0E. EXTRATROPICAL (XT) CYCLONE 16W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS LOST ALL IDENTIFIABLE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IS NOW BEING CLASSIFIED AS AN XT CYCLONE. FORMATIVE FRONTAL FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE EVIDENT IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE SYSTEM EMBEDS WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. EXCESSIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR JET HAS DEPLETED DEEP CONVECTION IN ALL BUT THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER, EVEN THIS CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES INTO THE MID- LATITUDES. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON DVORAK AND RADAR FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN XT DATA-T NUMBER OF 3.5 FROM PGTW, AND A CORRESPONDING CURRENT INTENSITY OF 4.0. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.