From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Oct 31 04:09:07 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9UK96I9011743 for ; Sun, 31 Oct 2010 04:09:06 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9TIOXth021767; Sat, 30 Oct 2010 15:08:53 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4132925 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 30 Oct 2010 15:08:53 -0500 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9UK8qug025016 for ; Sat, 30 Oct 2010 15:08:52 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9UK8k3T000488 for ; Sat, 30 Oct 2010 15:08:52 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 2A89D405001E; Sat, 30 Oct 2010 15:08:46 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101030200846.2A89D405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2010 15:08:46 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 567 FXPQ60 PGUM 302008 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 608 AM CHST SUN OCT 31 2010 .SYNOPSIS... THE BAND OF SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OVER ROTA LAST EVENING MOVED SOUTH OVER GUAM OVERNIGHT. A THUNDERSTORM POPPED BRIEFLY OVER SOUTHERN GUAM ABOUT 330 AM BUT THAT HAS DISSIPATED...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHOWERS. A PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN GUAM...BUT BEYOND THAT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT IN THE MARIANAS WATERS. THE UPPER LOW NE OF THE MARIANAS IS CENTERED NEAR 21N 151E...MOVING WNW. && .DISCUSSION... LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE 12Z GFS MODEL IN DRYING UP THE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS BY SUNRISE...SO HAVE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR TODAY...CONTINUING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE EUROPEAN MODELS HINT AT INCREASED SHOWERS AROUND MID-WEEK...BUT GFS IS AMBIVALENT ABOUT THAT AT BEST. WITH NO CLEAR SIGNAL...WILL RETAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEK FOR NOW. && .MARINE... HAVE LEFT THE SWELL AND SURF GRIDS LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH WW3 SHOWING A STEADILY DECREASING NW SWELL. BARRING ANY SURPRISES IN THE MORNING SURF OBSERVATIONS...HI SURF ADVY SHOULD COME DOWN ON SCHEDULE BY THIS EVENING. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A SERIES OF TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES MOVING WEST WITHIN A TRADE SURGE WILL KEEP CONVECTION OVER POHNPEI THROUGH THIS EVENING. ON THE OTHER HAND...CONDITIONS FOR BOTH KOSRAE AND MAJURO ARE GOING TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TODAY AS DRIER SOUTHEAST TRADES PUSH THE DISTURBANCES FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS SAME SCENARIO WILL ALSO OCCUR AT POHNPEI BY TUESDAY. LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE ANOTHER NORTHEAST TRADE SURGE SOUTH OF HAWAII. THIS FEATURE COULD CAUSE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER BOTH MAJURO AND KOSRAE AGAIN WITH MORE BAD WEATHER BY MIDWEEK. BUILDING TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL KEEP HIGHER SURF ALONG EAST FACING REEFS ACROSS THE MARSHALLS...AND MIGHT CAUSE SURF HEIGHTS TO REACH HAZARDOUS LEVELS AT KOSRAE ON TUESDAY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNSHINE IS ANTICIPATED FOR CHUUK TODAY BUT WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM POHNPEI. IT WILL TAKE AT LEAST 36 TO 48 HOURS FOR THESE DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH THE ISLAND. AFTERWARD...A DRY TRADE-WIND REGIME WILL DOMINATE THRU MIDWEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DRIFTED FARTHER WEST OF PALAU...ALLOWING LIGHT TRADE WINDS TO FILTER BACK ACROSS YAP WITH FAIRER WEATHER THIS MORNING. WITH KOROR BEING CLOSER TO THE TROUGH... SHOWERS WILL LINGER A LITTLE LONGER TODAY BUT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING. BY MIDWEEK...TRADE DISTURBANCES FROM UPSTREAM AT EASTERN MICRONESIA ARE EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE A WET PATTERN FOR BOTH LOCATIONS. HAZARDOUS SURF WILL PERSIST ACROSS YAP AND PALAU ONE MORE DAY TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS ON MONDAY MORNING. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING FOR GUZ001>004. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.