Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2010 15:08:46 -0500

567 
FXPQ60 PGUM 302008
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
608 AM CHST SUN OCT 31 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BAND OF SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OVER ROTA LAST EVENING MOVED
SOUTH OVER GUAM OVERNIGHT. A THUNDERSTORM POPPED BRIEFLY OVER
SOUTHERN GUAM ABOUT 330 AM BUT THAT HAS DISSIPATED...ALONG WITH
MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHOWERS. A PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN REMAINS
OVER SOUTHERN GUAM...BUT BEYOND THAT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
PRESENT IN THE MARIANAS WATERS. THE UPPER LOW NE OF THE MARIANAS
IS CENTERED NEAR 21N 151E...MOVING WNW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE 12Z GFS MODEL IN DRYING UP THE
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS BY SUNRISE...SO HAVE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
TODAY...CONTINUING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE EUROPEAN MODELS HINT
AT INCREASED SHOWERS AROUND MID-WEEK...BUT GFS IS AMBIVALENT ABOUT
THAT AT BEST. WITH NO CLEAR SIGNAL...WILL RETAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE WEEK FOR NOW. 

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE LEFT THE SWELL AND SURF GRIDS LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH WW3
SHOWING A STEADILY DECREASING NW SWELL. BARRING ANY SURPRISES IN
THE MORNING SURF OBSERVATIONS...HI SURF ADVY SHOULD COME DOWN ON
SCHEDULE BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A SERIES OF TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES MOVING WEST WITHIN A TRADE
SURGE WILL KEEP CONVECTION OVER POHNPEI THROUGH THIS EVENING. ON
THE OTHER HAND...CONDITIONS FOR BOTH KOSRAE AND MAJURO ARE GOING
TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TODAY AS DRIER SOUTHEAST TRADES PUSH THE
DISTURBANCES FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS SAME SCENARIO
WILL ALSO OCCUR AT POHNPEI BY TUESDAY. LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE DATA
INDICATE ANOTHER NORTHEAST TRADE SURGE SOUTH OF HAWAII. THIS
FEATURE COULD CAUSE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER
BOTH MAJURO AND KOSRAE AGAIN WITH MORE BAD WEATHER BY MIDWEEK.
BUILDING TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL KEEP HIGHER SURF ALONG EAST FACING
REEFS ACROSS THE MARSHALLS...AND MIGHT CAUSE SURF HEIGHTS TO REACH
HAZARDOUS LEVELS AT KOSRAE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNSHINE IS ANTICIPATED FOR CHUUK TODAY BUT WILL 
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM POHNPEI. IT WILL
TAKE AT LEAST 36 TO 48 HOURS FOR THESE DISTURBANCES TO PASS
THROUGH THE ISLAND. AFTERWARD...A DRY TRADE-WIND REGIME WILL
DOMINATE THRU MIDWEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DRIFTED FARTHER WEST
OF PALAU...ALLOWING LIGHT TRADE WINDS TO FILTER BACK ACROSS YAP
WITH FAIRER WEATHER THIS MORNING. WITH KOROR BEING CLOSER TO THE
TROUGH... SHOWERS WILL LINGER A LITTLE LONGER TODAY BUT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING. BY MIDWEEK...TRADE
DISTURBANCES FROM UPSTREAM AT EASTERN MICRONESIA ARE EXPECTED TO
INTRODUCE A WET PATTERN FOR BOTH LOCATIONS. HAZARDOUS SURF WILL
PERSIST ACROSS YAP AND PALAU ONE MORE DAY TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/CHAN

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