Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2010 02:58:20 -0500

750 
FXPQ60 PGUM 310758
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
558 PM CHST SUN OCT 31 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS INVERTED 
SURFACE TROUGH RUNNING NORTHWARD FROM CHUUK STATE TO JUST WEST OF 
MINAMI TORI SHIMA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AREA 
OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHING...MAINLY TO 
THE LEE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII GLOBAL LIGHTNING 
DATA SHOWS SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH 
THIS FEATURE AS WELL. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT 
CLOUDINESS EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM KOSRAE. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT 
AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST WETTER PATTERN COULD PERSIST THROUGH 
THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT BOTH MODELS HINT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR 
FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THUS WILL COMPROMISE AND GO 
WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SURF OBSERVATIONS FROM THE WEST SIDE OF GUAM INDICATE HIGH SURF 
EVENT THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY HAS ALREADY WOUND DOWN AND WAS SHORT 
LIVED. HAVE EXPIRED THE CURRENT HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT 3 PM THIS 
AFTERNOON. IPAN BUOY COMES IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH NE TRADE SWELL OF 
5 FEET AT 12 SECONDS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION HAS SINCE MOVED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF MAJURO...KOSRAE 
AND POHNPEI ALLOWING DRIER CONDITIONS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO 
INFILTRATE OVER THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS 
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE 
APPROACHES MAJURO BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY AFFECT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESPECTIVELY. IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING TRADES 
ACROSS THE REGION...SURF AT KOSRAE MAY APPROACH HAZARDOUS LEVELS ON 
EASTERN SHORES OF KOSRAE LATER BY MIDWEEK BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE A 
BORDERLINE EVENT.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY 
PRODUCED BY COLLAPSING CONVECTION THIS MORNING IS TRAVERSING OVER 
THE CHUUK AREA AND IS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE TONIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL 
PICK UP ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PUSHES OVER 
THE AREA. DRIER SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY FOR CHUUK. THE 
FORECAST FOR YAP AND PALAU IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD FOR THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS AS A RIDGE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ASCAT ANALYSIS 
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. AS THE DISTURBED WEATHER OVER CHUUK 
PROGRESSES WESTWARD...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND TRADE WINDS BY 
MIDWEEK FOR THE YAP AND PALAU AREAS BUT SHOWER COVERAGE IS STILL 
DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN AS MODELS TEND TO WASH OUT TROUGH IN THE LONG 
TERM. CONTINUED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR YAP AND KOROR FOR A FEW 
MORE HOURS BUT SURF SHOULD FALL BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/WILLIAMS

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