From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Oct 31 15:58:44 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9V7whgP014155 for ; Sun, 31 Oct 2010 15:58:44 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9V2w493021767; Sun, 31 Oct 2010 02:58:27 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4136344 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 31 Oct 2010 02:58:27 -0500 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9V7wRRP027294 for ; Sun, 31 Oct 2010 02:58:27 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9V7wKXn019735 for ; Sun, 31 Oct 2010 02:58:26 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 9463A405001E; Sun, 31 Oct 2010 02:58:20 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101031075820.9463A405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2010 02:58:20 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 750 FXPQ60 PGUM 310758 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 558 PM CHST SUN OCT 31 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A MOISTER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH RUNNING NORTHWARD FROM CHUUK STATE TO JUST WEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHING...MAINLY TO THE LEE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII GLOBAL LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT CLOUDINESS EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM KOSRAE. && .DISCUSSION... HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST WETTER PATTERN COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT BOTH MODELS HINT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THUS WILL COMPROMISE AND GO WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE... SURF OBSERVATIONS FROM THE WEST SIDE OF GUAM INDICATE HIGH SURF EVENT THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY HAS ALREADY WOUND DOWN AND WAS SHORT LIVED. HAVE EXPIRED THE CURRENT HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. IPAN BUOY COMES IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH NE TRADE SWELL OF 5 FEET AT 12 SECONDS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION HAS SINCE MOVED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF MAJURO...KOSRAE AND POHNPEI ALLOWING DRIER CONDITIONS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO INFILTRATE OVER THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES MAJURO BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY AFFECT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESPECTIVELY. IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING TRADES ACROSS THE REGION...SURF AT KOSRAE MAY APPROACH HAZARDOUS LEVELS ON EASTERN SHORES OF KOSRAE LATER BY MIDWEEK BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE A BORDERLINE EVENT. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRODUCED BY COLLAPSING CONVECTION THIS MORNING IS TRAVERSING OVER THE CHUUK AREA AND IS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE TONIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PUSHES OVER THE AREA. DRIER SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY FOR CHUUK. THE FORECAST FOR YAP AND PALAU IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A RIDGE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ASCAT ANALYSIS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. AS THE DISTURBED WEATHER OVER CHUUK PROGRESSES WESTWARD...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND TRADE WINDS BY MIDWEEK FOR THE YAP AND PALAU AREAS BUT SHOWER COVERAGE IS STILL DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN AS MODELS TEND TO WASH OUT TROUGH IN THE LONG TERM. CONTINUED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR YAP AND KOROR FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT SURF SHOULD FALL BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS LATE TONIGHT. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MCELROY/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.