Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2010 14:36:05 -0500

168 
FXPQ60 PGUM 311935
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
535 AM CHST MON NOV 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW N OF THE MARIANAS IS CENTERED NEAR 21N148E...AND
APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING. THE SMALL CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK NEAR THE
MARIANAS IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING...LEAVING SOME CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS BEHIND. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHILE THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND MOVE
NW...UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NW OF THE MARIANAS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS TO GO WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS FOR A FEW DAYS...AND HAVE EXTENDED THOSE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH NO
MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS IN SIGHT.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
NW SWELL IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING...SO FOCUS OF SWELL AND SURF WILL
SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST. MODERATE RIP RISK LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK. 

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUING TO MOVE WESTWARD TO 
THE NORTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL 
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH TRADE-WIND SWELL POSSIBLY 
INCREASING SURF TO NEAR HAZARDOUS LEVELS ON EASTERN SHORES OF KOSRAE 
BY MIDWEEK. ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY UNTIL A SURFACE 
TROUGH BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAJURO ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... 
MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF SHOWERS PASSING NORTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI 
BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
NOW THAT A TROUGH NEAR CHUUK IS MOVING TO THE WEST IT IS BEGINNING 
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT FOR TODAY ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE EXPECTED AT CHUUK. CONVECTION NORTH OF POHNPEI WILL LIKELY STAY 
TO THE NORTH LEAVING CHUUK WITH JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND 
ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE WEEK. MEANWHILE YAP AND PALAU SIT IN THE 
MIDDLE OF A SURFACE RIDGE BETWEEN TROUGHS. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE 
TWO LOCATIONS MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY TODAY BEFORE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS 
REDEVELOP. MODELS SHOW A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE 
AREA BY MIDWEEK THAT WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...BUT FOR NOW IS NOT 
EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE. THE HIGH SURF 
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR BOTH YAP AND PALAU FOLLOWING LATEST 
ALTIMETRY DATA SHOWING SEAS OF AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT

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