From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Nov 1 03:36:48 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o9VJalPO006543 for ; Mon, 1 Nov 2010 03:36:47 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9TAjIxs017565; Sun, 31 Oct 2010 14:36:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4143986 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 31 Oct 2010 14:36:12 -0500 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9VJaBH0020733 for ; Sun, 31 Oct 2010 14:36:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9VJa5w7024701 for ; Sun, 31 Oct 2010 14:36:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 13837405001E; Sun, 31 Oct 2010 14:36:05 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101031193605.13837405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2010 14:36:05 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 168 FXPQ60 PGUM 311935 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 535 AM CHST MON NOV 1 2010 .SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER LOW N OF THE MARIANAS IS CENTERED NEAR 21N148E...AND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING. THE SMALL CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK NEAR THE MARIANAS IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING...LEAVING SOME CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS BEHIND. && .DISCUSSION... WHILE THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND MOVE NW...UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NW OF THE MARIANAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS TO GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR A FEW DAYS...AND HAVE EXTENDED THOSE CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS IN SIGHT. && .MARINE/SURF... NW SWELL IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING...SO FOCUS OF SWELL AND SURF WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST. MODERATE RIP RISK LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUING TO MOVE WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH TRADE-WIND SWELL POSSIBLY INCREASING SURF TO NEAR HAZARDOUS LEVELS ON EASTERN SHORES OF KOSRAE BY MIDWEEK. ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY UNTIL A SURFACE TROUGH BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAJURO ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF SHOWERS PASSING NORTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI BY LATE WEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... NOW THAT A TROUGH NEAR CHUUK IS MOVING TO THE WEST IT IS BEGINNING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT FOR TODAY ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT CHUUK. CONVECTION NORTH OF POHNPEI WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH LEAVING CHUUK WITH JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE WEEK. MEANWHILE YAP AND PALAU SIT IN THE MIDDLE OF A SURFACE RIDGE BETWEEN TROUGHS. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE TWO LOCATIONS MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY TODAY BEFORE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS REDEVELOP. MODELS SHOW A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDWEEK THAT WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...BUT FOR NOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR BOTH YAP AND PALAU FOLLOWING LATEST ALTIMETRY DATA SHOWING SEAS OF AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.