From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Nov 1 14:17:01 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oA16GxUu002386 for ; Mon, 1 Nov 2010 14:17:00 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o9VN2xV3021767; Mon, 1 Nov 2010 01:16:46 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4153306 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 1 Nov 2010 01:16:46 -0500 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA16GkXJ005645 for ; Mon, 1 Nov 2010 01:16:46 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA16Gdi2015864 for ; Mon, 1 Nov 2010 01:16:46 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 8C967405001E; Mon, 1 Nov 2010 01:16:39 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101101061639.8C967405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 1 Nov 2010 01:16:39 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 321 FXPQ60 PGUM 010616 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 416 PM CHST MON NOV 1 2010 .SYNOPSIS... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION EAST OF THE FORECAST ZONES BETWEEN 150E AND 170E. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CNMI LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...A SW TO NE ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STILL LAGS BEHIND THE LOW OVER THE MARIANAS. SURFACE TROUGHING TO THE EAST OF THE MARIANAS HAS WEAKENED...BUT CONVERGENT TRADES STILL PROVIDE SOME LOW-LEVEL FORCING NEAR AND EAST OF THE FORECAST ZONES. && .DISCUSSION... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST REASONING. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. LATEST GFS BACKS WINDS OVER FORECAST ZONES TOO QUICKLY...SO ELECTED TO KEEP THE EXISTING WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE... LATEST SURF OBS FROM ACROSS THE MARIANAS SHOW SURF CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY DECLINE ON WEST AND NORTH FACING REEFS. LATEST ASCAT IMAGERY AND WAVE WATCH MODEL DATA SHOW A TRADE-WIND SURGE EAST OF THE FORECAST ZONES. ACCORDINGLY...EXPECT SURF ON NORTH AND EAST FACING EXPOSURES TO BUILD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO THIS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SURF ON THESE EXPOSURES TO RISE TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT THIS TIME. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION HAS HELD STEADY TODAY WITH SHOWERS REMAINING NORTH OF KOSRAE. SHOWERS HAVE PASSED OVER POHNPEI WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE ISLAND BY SUNSET THIS EVENING. FORECAST SHOWS AN INCREASE IN WINDS TONIGHT FOR BRIEF GUSTY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER MAJURO THROUGH MIDWEEK WHEN MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS. WAVE WATCH MODEL INDICATES STEADY SEAS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TRADE-WIND SWELL BEGINNING MIDWEEK FOR KOSRAE AND MAJURO. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A SLOW MOVING TROUGH JUST WEST OF CHUUK HAS KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERHEAD...BUT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY MOVED OFF TO THE WEST. WINDS OVER CHUUK WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE TROUGH MOVES FARTHER WEST. YAP AND KOROR REMAIN BENEATH A LOW- LEVEL RIDGE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING EAST OF YAP ALONG A WEAK TROUGH. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SEEM TO BE THE PRIMARY EFFECT OF THIS TROUGH OVER BOTH YAP AND PALAU. THE TROUGH NEAR CHUUK WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO BOTH LOCATIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ M. AYDLETT/MCELROY +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.