Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 1 Nov 2010 01:16:39 -0500

321 
FXPQ60 PGUM 010616
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
416 PM CHST MON NOV 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION EAST OF THE FORECAST ZONES BETWEEN 150E AND
170E. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CNMI LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...A SW TO NE ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STILL
LAGS BEHIND THE LOW OVER THE MARIANAS. SURFACE TROUGHING TO THE
EAST OF THE MARIANAS HAS WEAKENED...BUT CONVERGENT TRADES STILL
PROVIDE SOME LOW-LEVEL FORCING NEAR AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
ZONES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST REASONING. MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. LATEST GFS BACKS WINDS OVER FORECAST ZONES TOO
QUICKLY...SO ELECTED TO KEEP THE EXISTING WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SURF OBS FROM ACROSS THE MARIANAS SHOW SURF CONTINUING TO
GRADUALLY DECLINE ON WEST AND NORTH FACING REEFS. LATEST ASCAT
IMAGERY AND WAVE WATCH MODEL DATA SHOW A TRADE-WIND SURGE EAST OF
THE FORECAST ZONES. ACCORDINGLY...EXPECT SURF ON NORTH AND EAST
FACING EXPOSURES TO BUILD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO
THIS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SURF ON THESE EXPOSURES TO RISE TO
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION HAS HELD STEADY TODAY WITH SHOWERS
REMAINING NORTH OF KOSRAE. SHOWERS HAVE PASSED OVER POHNPEI WITH
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE ISLAND BY SUNSET THIS
EVENING. FORECAST SHOWS AN INCREASE IN WINDS TONIGHT FOR BRIEF
GUSTY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER MAJURO THROUGH MIDWEEK WHEN
MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS. WAVE WATCH MODEL
INDICATES STEADY SEAS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TRADE-WIND SWELL
BEGINNING MIDWEEK FOR KOSRAE AND MAJURO.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A SLOW MOVING TROUGH JUST WEST OF CHUUK HAS KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVERHEAD...BUT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY
MOVED OFF TO THE WEST. WINDS OVER CHUUK WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AS
THE TROUGH MOVES FARTHER WEST. YAP AND KOROR REMAIN BENEATH A
LOW- LEVEL RIDGE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE DEVELOPING EAST OF YAP ALONG A WEAK TROUGH. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SEEM TO BE THE PRIMARY EFFECT OF THIS TROUGH OVER BOTH YAP
AND PALAU. THE TROUGH NEAR CHUUK WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO BOTH LOCATIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

M. AYDLETT/MCELROY

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