From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Nov 2 04:07:53 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oA1K7qvC010637 for ; Tue, 2 Nov 2010 04:07:53 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA1GGaPO021767; Mon, 1 Nov 2010 15:07:33 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4164612 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 1 Nov 2010 15:07:33 -0500 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA1K7Xji018631 for ; Mon, 1 Nov 2010 15:07:33 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA1K7QTO003042 for ; Mon, 1 Nov 2010 15:07:32 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 74FF8405001E; Mon, 1 Nov 2010 15:07:26 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101101200726.74FF8405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 1 Nov 2010 15:07:26 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 763 FXPQ60 PGUM 012007 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 607 AM CHST TUE NOV 2 2010 .SYNOPSIS... RADAR DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE...BUT SATELLITE SHOWS A SMALL CONVECTIVE MASS JUST EAST OF THE MARIANAS...AND WE SAW DISTANT LIGHTNING ESE OF GUAM AROUND 5 AM. FURTHER EAST...A TRADE DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT NORTH OF CHUUK/POHNPEI WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AROUND 152-153E. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTED SW-NE REMAINS NW OF THE MARIANAS. && .DISCUSSION... MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS IN THE TRADES RIPPLES WEST ACROSS THE MARIANAS. UKMET IS THE MOST BULLISH...BUT GFS...ECMWF AND NOGAPS ALL SHOW ENHANCED SHOWER POTENTIAL WED THROUGH THU NIGHT...AND PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY. IN VIEW OF CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE INTRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER FOR WED THROUGH THU NIGHT. COULD ALSO BE BORDERLINE SCATTERED SOME TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE DECREASE OF CURRENT SHOWERS AFTER SUNRISE. && .MARINE... NW SWELL SLOWLY DIMINISHING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND SHOULD FALL BELOW 2 FEET THU EVENING. COMBINED SEAS SHOULD HIT 8 FEET AT TIMES TONIGHT AND WED AS TRADE SWELL RISES TO 6 FEET...BUT SHOULD FALL BACK TO 6-7 FT WED NIGHT ON AS THE NW SWELL DIMINISHES. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FORM JUST NORTH OF KOSRAE AND MAJURO THAT LEADS EASTWARD TO A SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN MAJURO AND THE DATE LINE. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS SHOWERS NORTH OF ALL LOCATIONS TODAY BUT BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAJURO BY WED. KOSRAE AND POHNPEI WILL LIKELY GET THROUGH THE WEEK WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS. WAVEWATCH 3 MODEL HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THE 7 FT COMBINED SEAS EXPECTED TODAY AND WED AT KOSRAE WHICH PUTS A HIGH SURF ADVISORY A LITTLE MORE OUT OF REACH FOR NOW...BUT INCREASED TRADE WINDS WILL CAUSE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS THAN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS FOR THE EASTERN MICRONESIA LOCATIONS. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... THE TROUGH NEAR CHUUK HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP IN THE AREA. GFS40 KEEPS CHUUK RATHER WET TODAY WHILE THE OTHER MODELS KEEP SHOWERS JUST NORTH SO DECIDED TO STAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR TODAY. THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MICRONESIA MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO CHUUK BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW NE WINDS NEAR YAP AND PALAU AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS THE TROUGH AXIS NEARS. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD REACH PALAU BY WED THEN YAP BY THU. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.