Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 1 Nov 2010 15:07:26 -0500

763 
FXPQ60 PGUM 012007
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
607 AM CHST TUE NOV 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE...BUT SATELLITE SHOWS A SMALL CONVECTIVE
MASS JUST EAST OF THE MARIANAS...AND WE SAW DISTANT LIGHTNING ESE
OF GUAM AROUND 5 AM. FURTHER EAST...A TRADE DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT
NORTH OF CHUUK/POHNPEI WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AROUND 152-153E.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTED SW-NE REMAINS NW OF THE MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS IN THE TRADES
RIPPLES WEST ACROSS THE MARIANAS. UKMET IS THE MOST BULLISH...BUT
GFS...ECMWF AND NOGAPS ALL SHOW ENHANCED SHOWER POTENTIAL WED
THROUGH THU NIGHT...AND PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY. IN VIEW OF CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE INTRODUCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER FOR WED THROUGH THU NIGHT. COULD ALSO
BE BORDERLINE SCATTERED SOME TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD
SEE DECREASE OF CURRENT SHOWERS AFTER SUNRISE. 

&&

.MARINE...
NW SWELL SLOWLY DIMINISHING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND SHOULD FALL
BELOW 2 FEET THU EVENING. COMBINED SEAS SHOULD HIT 8 FEET AT TIMES
TONIGHT AND WED AS TRADE SWELL RISES TO 6 FEET...BUT SHOULD FALL
BACK TO 6-7 FT WED NIGHT ON AS THE NW SWELL DIMINISHES.  

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FORM JUST NORTH OF 
KOSRAE AND MAJURO THAT LEADS EASTWARD TO A SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 
MAJURO AND THE DATE LINE. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS SHOWERS NORTH OF ALL 
LOCATIONS TODAY BUT BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAJURO BY WED. 
KOSRAE AND POHNPEI WILL LIKELY GET THROUGH THE WEEK WITH JUST 
ISOLATED SHOWERS. WAVEWATCH 3 MODEL HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THE 
7 FT COMBINED SEAS EXPECTED TODAY AND WED AT KOSRAE WHICH PUTS A 
HIGH SURF ADVISORY A LITTLE MORE OUT OF REACH FOR NOW...BUT 
INCREASED TRADE WINDS WILL CAUSE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS THAN IN THE 
PAST FEW DAYS FOR THE EASTERN MICRONESIA LOCATIONS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE TROUGH NEAR CHUUK HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS 
AND CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP IN THE AREA. GFS40 KEEPS CHUUK 
RATHER WET TODAY WHILE THE OTHER MODELS KEEP SHOWERS JUST NORTH SO 
DECIDED TO STAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR TODAY. THE TROUGH MOVING 
THROUGH EASTERN MICRONESIA MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO 
CHUUK BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW NE 
WINDS NEAR YAP AND PALAU AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH APPROACHING FROM 
THE EAST. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS THE TROUGH AXIS NEARS. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD REACH PALAU BY WED THEN YAP BY THU.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.