From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Nov 2 14:04:00 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oA263xuP002371 for ; Tue, 2 Nov 2010 14:04:00 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA152er5017565; Tue, 2 Nov 2010 01:03:41 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4172555 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 2 Nov 2010 01:03:41 -0500 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA263fIU007880 for ; Tue, 2 Nov 2010 01:03:41 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA263Y56029796 for ; Tue, 2 Nov 2010 01:03:40 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 24293405001E; Tue, 2 Nov 2010 01:03:34 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101102060334.24293405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 2 Nov 2010 01:03:34 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 022 FXPQ60 PGUM 020603 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 403 PM CHST TUE NOV 2 2010 .SYNOPSIS... RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TOWARD DAWN...WILL PROBABLY ARRIVE AROUND DAWN. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLIER TODAY SUGGESTED THE SHOWERS WOULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHOWERS HAS ERODED EASTWARD AROUND 150 MILES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH STILL APPEARS TO BE ALIGNED EAST OF THE FORECAST ZONES ALONG 150E. && .DISCUSSION... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST REASONING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS UPSTREAM FROM THE FORECAST ZONES TO 165E. BEYOND 165E...A BAND OF TRADE-WIND CONVECTION BETWEEN 5N AND 12N EXTENDS EASTWARD TO BEYOND THE DATE LINE. ALL MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING WET WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS START TO TREND GRADUALLY DRIER BEGINNING ON FRIDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CLOUD COVER/POPS NEED TO BE BUMPED UP ANOTHER DAY OR SO IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. && .MARINE... LATEST ASCAT IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TRADE SURGE APPROACHING THE FORECAST ZONES FROM THE EAST. CURRENT WIND AND MARINE GRIDS ALREADY REFLECT THIS. EXPECT SURF ON NORTH AND EAST FACING EXPOSURES TO BUILD 1 TO 2 FEET DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS NW SWELL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... ACTIVE WEATHER SNAKES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE BELT OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEAVING NORTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI...SOUTH OF KWAJALEIN...AND ACROSS MAJURO. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST WEATHER IS NOW CONCENTRATED NORTH OF MAJURO AND IS HEADED TOWARDS KWAJALEIN. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL STAY OVER MAJURO MUCH OF THE WEEK AS MORE SHOWERS PASS OVER THE DATELINE. KOSRAE AND POHNPEI HAVE BEEN QUIET TODAY WITH SHOWERS STAYING NORTH. KOSRAE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ACTION BUT POHNPEI COULD SEE SHOWERS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AS OUTFLOW PUSHES WESTWARD. HIGHER SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES FOR MAJURO AND KOSRAE...BUT A HIGH SURF EVENT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CHUUK IS SITUATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A LARGE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR CHUUK TOWARDS GUAM. SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING EAST OF CHUUK AND WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DOMINANT ACROSS YAP AND PALAU TODAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A TROUGH SOUTH OF GUAM MOVES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...BUT MODELS SHOW LITTLE CONSENSUS FOR WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL OCCUR. BEST GUESS FROM RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS KEEPS SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH OF THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ M. AYDLETT/MCELROY +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.