Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 2 Nov 2010 01:03:34 -0500

022 
FXPQ60 PGUM 020603
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
403 PM CHST TUE NOV 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TOWARD DAWN...WILL
PROBABLY ARRIVE AROUND DAWN. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLIER
TODAY SUGGESTED THE SHOWERS WOULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SHOWERS HAS ERODED EASTWARD AROUND 150 MILES.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH STILL APPEARS TO BE ALIGNED EAST OF THE
FORECAST ZONES ALONG 150E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST REASONING. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS UPSTREAM FROM THE
FORECAST ZONES TO 165E. BEYOND 165E...A BAND OF TRADE-WIND
CONVECTION BETWEEN 5N AND 12N EXTENDS EASTWARD TO BEYOND THE DATE
LINE. ALL MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING WET WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS START TO TREND GRADUALLY DRIER
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CLOUD
COVER/POPS NEED TO BE BUMPED UP ANOTHER DAY OR SO IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST ASCAT IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TRADE SURGE APPROACHING THE
FORECAST ZONES FROM THE EAST. CURRENT WIND AND MARINE GRIDS
ALREADY REFLECT THIS. EXPECT SURF ON NORTH AND EAST FACING
EXPOSURES TO BUILD 1 TO 2 FEET DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
NW SWELL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ACTIVE WEATHER SNAKES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE BELT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEAVING NORTH OF KOSRAE AND
POHNPEI...SOUTH OF KWAJALEIN...AND ACROSS MAJURO. VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS MOST WEATHER IS NOW CONCENTRATED NORTH OF MAJURO AND IS
HEADED TOWARDS KWAJALEIN. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL STAY OVER
MAJURO MUCH OF THE WEEK AS MORE SHOWERS PASS OVER THE DATELINE.
KOSRAE AND POHNPEI HAVE BEEN QUIET TODAY WITH SHOWERS STAYING
NORTH. KOSRAE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ACTION BUT POHNPEI
COULD SEE SHOWERS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AS OUTFLOW PUSHES WESTWARD.
HIGHER SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
FOR MAJURO AND KOSRAE...BUT A HIGH SURF EVENT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK IS SITUATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A LARGE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR CHUUK TOWARDS GUAM. SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING EAST OF CHUUK AND WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
DOMINANT ACROSS YAP AND PALAU TODAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS A TROUGH SOUTH OF GUAM MOVES CLOSER TO THE
ISLANDS...BUT MODELS SHOW LITTLE CONSENSUS FOR WHEN AND HOW MUCH
RAIN WILL OCCUR. BEST GUESS FROM RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS KEEPS
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH OF THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

M. AYDLETT/MCELROY

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