Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 2 Nov 2010 14:18:31 -0500

581 
FXPQ60 PGUM 021918
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
518 AM CHST WED NOV 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
IT IS EVIDENT FROM RADAR THAT A SURFACE TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH
THE MARIANAS...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SHOWERS EAST OF THE ISLANDS.
SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTION RE-INITIATING EAST OF GUAM AFTER HAVING
DISSIPATED BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FURTHER EAST...A LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION THAT BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN TO KWAJALEIN TUESDAY IS MOVING
QUICKLY WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODELS ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE MARIANAS WATERS. THE ONLY
CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO EXTEND ISOLATED THUNDER INTO
SATURDAY. WITH A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH...AND WITH
THE DIURNAL CYCLE OPERATING...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE 
EPISODIC THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE FIRST BATCH MOVING THRU
THIS MORNING. 
 
&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH PASSED NORTH OF
MAJURO THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS FALLING AT MAJURO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION RE-FORMING BETWEEN
THE TROUGH AND THE DATELINE. WHILE GFS CONCENTRATES SHOWERS OVER
MAJURO TODAY...UKMET AND ECMWF DISPLACES SHOWERS A BIT MORE NORTH
SO HAVE KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR TODAY BUT ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. IF THE BAND OF CONVECTION BETWEEN 7N AND
10N SOLIDIFIES WITH ANY SOUTHWARD SHIFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED TODAY AT MAJURO. THE STORY REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR
KOSRAE...STAYING SOUTH OF THE ACTIVITY...BUT POHNPEI WILL LIKELY
SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. MODELS PUSH CONVECTION FARTHER NORTH AFTER TODAY BUT
THEN BRINGS SHOWERS BACK INTO THE PICTURE FRIDAY AS A SECOND
TROUGH CROSS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE CHUUK AREA AND NEARING YAP AND PALAU AS A 
BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE MARIANAS MOVES 
WESTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST 
ARRIVE AT YAP THIS MORNING THEN PALAU THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE 
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS DEEPER CONVECTION NEAR YAP MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD 
FOLLOWING A SOUTHWESTWARD-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST 
NORTHWEST OF YAP. MODELS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT KEEPING ACTIVE WEATHER 
NEAR YAP AND PALAU THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRIER 
WEATHER...CHUUK MAY GET ANOTHER SHOT AT SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT

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