From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Nov 3 03:18:57 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oA2JIu5o026540 for ; Wed, 3 Nov 2010 03:18:57 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA2JFR1t021767; Tue, 2 Nov 2010 14:18:40 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4183590 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 2 Nov 2010 14:18:40 -0500 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA2JIcWk019806 for ; Tue, 2 Nov 2010 14:18:38 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA2JIVUU025500 for ; Tue, 2 Nov 2010 14:18:37 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 7BB43405001F; Tue, 2 Nov 2010 14:18:31 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101102191831.7BB43405001F@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 2 Nov 2010 14:18:31 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 581 FXPQ60 PGUM 021918 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 518 AM CHST WED NOV 3 2010 .SYNOPSIS... IT IS EVIDENT FROM RADAR THAT A SURFACE TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE MARIANAS...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SHOWERS EAST OF THE ISLANDS. SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTION RE-INITIATING EAST OF GUAM AFTER HAVING DISSIPATED BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FURTHER EAST...A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION THAT BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN TO KWAJALEIN TUESDAY IS MOVING QUICKLY WEST. && .DISCUSSION... LATEST MODELS ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE MARIANAS WATERS. THE ONLY CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO EXTEND ISOLATED THUNDER INTO SATURDAY. WITH A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH...AND WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE OPERATING...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE EPISODIC THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE FIRST BATCH MOVING THRU THIS MORNING. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH PASSED NORTH OF MAJURO THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS FALLING AT MAJURO. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION RE-FORMING BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE DATELINE. WHILE GFS CONCENTRATES SHOWERS OVER MAJURO TODAY...UKMET AND ECMWF DISPLACES SHOWERS A BIT MORE NORTH SO HAVE KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR TODAY BUT ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. IF THE BAND OF CONVECTION BETWEEN 7N AND 10N SOLIDIFIES WITH ANY SOUTHWARD SHIFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TODAY AT MAJURO. THE STORY REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR KOSRAE...STAYING SOUTH OF THE ACTIVITY...BUT POHNPEI WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH APPROACHES. MODELS PUSH CONVECTION FARTHER NORTH AFTER TODAY BUT THEN BRINGS SHOWERS BACK INTO THE PICTURE FRIDAY AS A SECOND TROUGH CROSS THROUGH THE REGION. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE CHUUK AREA AND NEARING YAP AND PALAU AS A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE MARIANAS MOVES WESTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST ARRIVE AT YAP THIS MORNING THEN PALAU THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS DEEPER CONVECTION NEAR YAP MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FOLLOWING A SOUTHWESTWARD-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF YAP. MODELS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT KEEPING ACTIVE WEATHER NEAR YAP AND PALAU THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRIER WEATHER...CHUUK MAY GET ANOTHER SHOT AT SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.