Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 3 Nov 2010 00:51:45 -0500

987 
FXPQ60 PGUM 030551
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
351 PM CHST WED NOV 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST
ZONES AND UPSTREAM TO 170E. LATEST ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH HAS JUST PASSED WESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST DOMAIN. ANOTHER TROUGH CAN BE SEEN BETWEEN 155E AND
160E. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE FROM GUAM TO SAIPAN.
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT CURRENTLY...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW POP UP OVERNIGHT DURING THE USUAL
NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST REASONING. INHERITED FORECAST
CARRIES SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...RESPECTIVELY. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. DRIER TRADE-
WIND FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. TRADE
SURGE IS USHERING IN HIGHER WIND WAVES AND SWELLS...BUT SURF IS
NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE PERSISTS FROM ACROSS THE DATE LINE INTO
THE RMI. MODELS INDICATE THAT SHOWERS OVER THE RMI WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD BETWEEN 5N AND 10N DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT POHNPEI FRIDAY...WHILE HEAVIER
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST NORTH OF KOSRAE. A MOIST PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BETWEEN 5N AND 10N THROUGH THE LONGER
TERM...AND SOME SHOWERS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
KOSRAE BY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS DRY AT
KAPINGAMARANGI AND ANOTHER DROUGHT STATEMENT IS SCHEDULED TO BE
ISSUED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MAJURO BUOY KALO SHOWS MIXED SEAS OF 5FT/10SEC MAINLY FROM THE
NE...BUT SOME ENERGY IS APPARENTLY ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH. ASCAT
WINDS INDICATE 20 KT WINDS JUST NE OF MAJURO AND LARGER WAVES
THAN INDICATED BY KALO ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJURO MARINE
ZONE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A TRADE-WIND SURGE IS APPROACHING CHUUK THIS
AFTERNOON. MOIST FLOW ARRIVING FROM FARTHER EAST WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES FOR CHUUK...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YAP AND KOROR AREAS IS
DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD AND A PATTERN OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...THEN A RELATIVELY DRIER PATTERN OF LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/SIMPSON

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