From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Nov 3 13:52:07 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oA35q5rD008427 for ; Wed, 3 Nov 2010 13:52:06 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA2JwaBK028721; Wed, 3 Nov 2010 00:51:52 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4191964 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 3 Nov 2010 00:51:51 -0500 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA35ppJY015626 for ; Wed, 3 Nov 2010 00:51:51 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA35pjRx021464 for ; Wed, 3 Nov 2010 00:51:51 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 3F3EE405001E; Wed, 3 Nov 2010 00:51:45 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101103055145.3F3EE405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 3 Nov 2010 00:51:45 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 987 FXPQ60 PGUM 030551 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 351 PM CHST WED NOV 3 2010 .SYNOPSIS... SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST ZONES AND UPSTREAM TO 170E. LATEST ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH HAS JUST PASSED WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST DOMAIN. ANOTHER TROUGH CAN BE SEEN BETWEEN 155E AND 160E. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE FROM GUAM TO SAIPAN. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT CURRENTLY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW POP UP OVERNIGHT DURING THE USUAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM. && .DISCUSSION... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST REASONING. INHERITED FORECAST CARRIES SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...RESPECTIVELY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. DRIER TRADE- WIND FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. TRADE SURGE IS USHERING IN HIGHER WIND WAVES AND SWELLS...BUT SURF IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE PERSISTS FROM ACROSS THE DATE LINE INTO THE RMI. MODELS INDICATE THAT SHOWERS OVER THE RMI WILL SPREAD WESTWARD BETWEEN 5N AND 10N DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT POHNPEI FRIDAY...WHILE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST NORTH OF KOSRAE. A MOIST PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BETWEEN 5N AND 10N THROUGH THE LONGER TERM...AND SOME SHOWERS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS KOSRAE BY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS DRY AT KAPINGAMARANGI AND ANOTHER DROUGHT STATEMENT IS SCHEDULED TO BE ISSUED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAJURO BUOY KALO SHOWS MIXED SEAS OF 5FT/10SEC MAINLY FROM THE NE...BUT SOME ENERGY IS APPARENTLY ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH. ASCAT WINDS INDICATE 20 KT WINDS JUST NE OF MAJURO AND LARGER WAVES THAN INDICATED BY KALO ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJURO MARINE ZONE. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A TRADE-WIND SURGE IS APPROACHING CHUUK THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST FLOW ARRIVING FROM FARTHER EAST WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES FOR CHUUK...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YAP AND KOROR AREAS IS DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD AND A PATTERN OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...THEN A RELATIVELY DRIER PATTERN OF LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MCELROY/SIMPSON +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.