Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 3 Nov 2010 16:06:05 -0500

WTPN22 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 110.7E TO 12.8N 108.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 19 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 032030Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 110.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1N
110.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 110.4E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS CONSOLIDATING WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 031643Z TRMM
37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED LLCC WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS
ASSESSED AS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, SHIP
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER INDICATE 19-23 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE (OUTSIDE THE DEEP CONVECTION) AND STRONGER
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE (UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION).
THE LLCC IS SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD AND IS ABOUT 75 NM EAST OF
VIETNAM. IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE, THERE IS A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE SLOW WESTWARD TRACK,
RECENT IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND THE SHIP OBSERVATIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 042100Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 92.7E.//

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