From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Nov 4 05:06:30 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oA3L6TBD023116 for ; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 05:06:30 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA3EAeD1028721; Wed, 3 Nov 2010 16:06:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4203171 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 3 Nov 2010 16:06:12 -0500 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA3L6Ckd019257 for ; Wed, 3 Nov 2010 16:06:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA3L65rW014485 for ; Wed, 3 Nov 2010 16:06:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 7F2314050033; Wed, 3 Nov 2010 16:06:05 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101103210605.7F2314050033@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 3 Nov 2010 16:06:05 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN22 PGTW 032100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 110.7E TO 12.8N 108.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 19 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 032030Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 110.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 110.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 110.4E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS CONSOLIDATING WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 031643Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED LLCC WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS ASSESSED AS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, SHIP OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER INDICATE 19-23 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE (OUTSIDE THE DEEP CONVECTION) AND STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE (UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION). THE LLCC IS SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD AND IS ABOUT 75 NM EAST OF VIETNAM. IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE, THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE SLOW WESTWARD TRACK, RECENT IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND THE SHIP OBSERVATIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 042100Z. 4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 92.7E.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.