Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 3 Nov 2010 16:29:28 -0500

532 
FXPQ60 PGUM 032129
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
729 AM CHST THU NOV 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
MARIANAS WATERS. A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHOWERS TO SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS STILL KEEPING THE MARIANAS IN A RATHER MOIST PATTERN. SEEMS
QUITE LIKELY FOR WET SEASON. INHERITED FORECAST GRIDS HANDLED THIS
WELL SO JUST TWEAKED THE FIRST 6 HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
RADAR WAS RAPIDLY DRYING OUT SO MADE THE SHOWERS ISOLATED FOR THIS
MORNING. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT CAME
THROUGH LAST NIGHT BRINGING RAIN-COOLED STABLE AIR INTO THE AREA.
A BIT OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW THE AIR TO DESTABILIZE
AGAIN WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THIS NEW ROUND ALREADY SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING
TO THE EAST.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
EMBEDDED TRADE-WIND TROUGH OVER THE MARSHALLS IS ALLOWING FOR SOME 
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MAJURO MARINE ZONE BUT IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THESE 
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STAY NORTH OF KOSRAE AS WELL. MODELS ARE 
IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER TROUGH ARRIVING SUNDAY FOR 
MAJURO...PUSHING WESTWARD AND MAY AFFECT KOSRAE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR 
POHNPEI...CONVECTION FARTHER EAST MAY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO 
THE AREA BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY 
WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. 

SEAS ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY RISE IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER 
TRADE WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE MARSHALLS BUT MODELS SHOW SWELL HEIGHTS 
LOW ENOUGH AS NOT TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF AT ANY OF THE FORECAST 
LOCATIONS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE 
PASSING OVER CHUUK. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW ACTIVITY PUSHING OFF TO 
THE WEST THROUGH TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR LATER 
TODAY OVER CHUUK. THE NEXT TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY 
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A 
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PALAU REGION WITH IR 
IMAGERY SHOWING HEAVIEST CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST WATERS 
OF THE KOROR MARINE ZONE. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER 
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE 
WESTWARD. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVING TOWARD YAP SHOULD BRING 
ACTIVE WEATHER BACK INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 
TONIGHT. MODELS DEPICT SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING OVER YAP AND 
PALAU OVER THE WEEKEND BUT ARE UNCLEAR IN TIMING OF AREAS OF HEAVIER 
CONVECTION AND PRECIP SO DECIDED TO CONTINUE ISOLATED SHOWER 
COVERAGE IN THE LONG TERM UNTIL MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO CONVERGE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS

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