From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Nov 4 05:29:53 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oA3LTpov023223 for ; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 05:29:52 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA3AqSMQ000758; Wed, 3 Nov 2010 16:29:35 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4203519 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 3 Nov 2010 16:29:35 -0500 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA3LTZpu021159 for ; Wed, 3 Nov 2010 16:29:35 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA3LTS33024270 for ; Wed, 3 Nov 2010 16:29:34 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 7A7A2405001E; Wed, 3 Nov 2010 16:29:28 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101103212928.7A7A2405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 3 Nov 2010 16:29:28 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 532 FXPQ60 PGUM 032129 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 729 AM CHST THU NOV 4 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHOWERS TO SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. && .DISCUSSION... MODELS STILL KEEPING THE MARIANAS IN A RATHER MOIST PATTERN. SEEMS QUITE LIKELY FOR WET SEASON. INHERITED FORECAST GRIDS HANDLED THIS WELL SO JUST TWEAKED THE FIRST 6 HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. RADAR WAS RAPIDLY DRYING OUT SO MADE THE SHOWERS ISOLATED FOR THIS MORNING. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT CAME THROUGH LAST NIGHT BRINGING RAIN-COOLED STABLE AIR INTO THE AREA. A BIT OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW THE AIR TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THIS NEW ROUND ALREADY SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING TO THE EAST. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... EMBEDDED TRADE-WIND TROUGH OVER THE MARSHALLS IS ALLOWING FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MAJURO MARINE ZONE BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STAY NORTH OF KOSRAE AS WELL. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER TROUGH ARRIVING SUNDAY FOR MAJURO...PUSHING WESTWARD AND MAY AFFECT KOSRAE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR POHNPEI...CONVECTION FARTHER EAST MAY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. SEAS ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY RISE IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER TRADE WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE MARSHALLS BUT MODELS SHOW SWELL HEIGHTS LOW ENOUGH AS NOT TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF AT ANY OF THE FORECAST LOCATIONS. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER CHUUK. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW ACTIVITY PUSHING OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR LATER TODAY OVER CHUUK. THE NEXT TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PALAU REGION WITH IR IMAGERY SHOWING HEAVIEST CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST WATERS OF THE KOROR MARINE ZONE. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE WESTWARD. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVING TOWARD YAP SHOULD BRING ACTIVE WEATHER BACK INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS DEPICT SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING OVER YAP AND PALAU OVER THE WEEKEND BUT ARE UNCLEAR IN TIMING OF AREAS OF HEAVIER CONVECTION AND PRECIP SO DECIDED TO CONTINUE ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE LONG TERM UNTIL MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO CONVERGE. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.