Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 3 Nov 2010 21:09:09 -0500

ABPW10 PGTW 040230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/040230Z-040600ZNOV2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/032151ZNOV2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1N
110.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 110.4E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS CONSOLIDATING WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 031643Z TRMM
37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED LLCC WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS
ASSESSED AS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, SHIP
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER INDICATE 19-23 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE (OUTSIDE THE DEEP CONVECTION) AND STRONGER
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE (UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION).
THE LLCC IS SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD AND IS ABOUT 75 NM EAST OF
VIETNAM. IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE, THERE IS A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE SLOW WESTWARD TRACK,
RECENT IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND THE SHIP OBSERVATIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. SEE REF A (WTPN22
PGTW 032200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO
GOOD.//

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