From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Nov 4 10:09:36 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oA429YIl000999 for ; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 10:09:35 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA3FOY7P000583; Wed, 3 Nov 2010 21:09:19 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4205850 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 3 Nov 2010 21:09:19 -0500 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA429GbW007029 for ; Wed, 3 Nov 2010 21:09:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA429AfR013676 for ; Wed, 3 Nov 2010 21:09:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 0998F4050025; Wed, 3 Nov 2010 21:09:09 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101104020910.0998F4050025@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 3 Nov 2010 21:09:09 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list ABPW10 PGTW 040230 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/040230Z-040600ZNOV2010// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/032151ZNOV2010// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 110.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 110.4E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS CONSOLIDATING WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 031643Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED LLCC WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS ASSESSED AS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, SHIP OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER INDICATE 19-23 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE (OUTSIDE THE DEEP CONVECTION) AND STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE (UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION). THE LLCC IS SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD AND IS ABOUT 75 NM EAST OF VIETNAM. IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE, THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE SLOW WESTWARD TRACK, RECENT IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND THE SHIP OBSERVATIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. SEE REF A (WTPN22 PGTW 032200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO GOOD.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.