Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 4 Nov 2010 00:59:12 -0500

854 
FXPQ60 PGUM 040559
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
359 PM CHST THU NOV 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS 
ARE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MARIANAS TO THE 
MARSHALLS. WEAK TRADE-WIND TROUGHS ARE SERVING TO FOCUS CONVECTION 
EAST OF THE MARIANAS NEAR 150E AND 160E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS WAS TO ADD SCATTERED 
SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SECOND 
TRADE-WIND TROUGH LINED UP EAST OF THE MARIANAS NEAR 160E. GFS AND 
NOGAPS GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ON 
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THIS TROUGH PASSES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 
MORE WET WEATHER ON SATURDAY...BUT SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR THIS IS 
NOT AS STRONG. LIGHTNING DATA FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII SITE 
SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDER NEAR AND EAST OF THE MARIANAS TO 160E...SO 
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFTS IN CARRYING ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH 
SATURDAY. CURRENT TRADE-WIND SURGE HAS CAUSED SURF ON EAST FACING 
REEFS TO BUILD TO WITHIN A COUPLE OF FEET OF THE HIGH SURF 
THRESHOLD...BUT BELIEVE THE SURF IS PEAKING. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTS TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECLINE 
DURING THE WEEKEND. 

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS THAT SHOWERS WERE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED 
ACROSS MOST OF THIS AREA. GFS SEEMS TO INITIALIZE BEST AND INDICATES 
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD WESTWARD WITH THE ITCZ BETWEEN 5N AND 10N IN THE 
COMING DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR POHNPEI TONIGHT THRU 
FRI NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THESE THREE 
FORECAST POINTS. THE ITCZ IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD 
NEXT WEEK AND KOSRAE SHOULD RECEIVE A FEW MORE SHOWERS BY THEN.

MAJURO BUOY KALO SHOWS COMBINED SEAS 6 FT/9 SEC. SEAS ACROSS THE 
REGION WILL GRADUALLY RISE IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER TRADE WINDS 
NORTHEAST OF THE MARSHALLS BUT MODELS SHOW SWELL HEIGHTS LOW ENOUGH 
AS NOT TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF AT ANY OF THE FORECAST LOCATIONS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
FAIRLY MOIST PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT AT THIS 
TIME HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ONLY BETWEEN FORECAST POINTS. 
MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY AND MAINLY USED GFS FOR GUIDANCE. GFS 
INDICATES BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE AT BOTH KOROR 
AND CHUUK ABOUT FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. TIMING ANY PARTICULAR 
SCATTERED SHOWER EVENT MUCH IN ADVANCE WILL BE DIFFICULT. LIGHT
TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE IN THE
COMING DAYS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/SIMPSON

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