From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Nov 4 13:59:33 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oA45xW1q015615 for ; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 13:59:32 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA41fWg8028721; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 00:59:19 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4208700 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 00:59:19 -0500 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA45xIrX023213 for ; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 00:59:18 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA45xCoR016576 for ; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 00:59:18 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 495904050020; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 00:59:12 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101104055912.495904050020@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 4 Nov 2010 00:59:12 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 854 FXPQ60 PGUM 040559 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 359 PM CHST THU NOV 4 2010 .SYNOPSIS... MOIST WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MARIANAS TO THE MARSHALLS. WEAK TRADE-WIND TROUGHS ARE SERVING TO FOCUS CONVECTION EAST OF THE MARIANAS NEAR 150E AND 160E. && .DISCUSSION... ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS WAS TO ADD SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SECOND TRADE-WIND TROUGH LINED UP EAST OF THE MARIANAS NEAR 160E. GFS AND NOGAPS GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THIS TROUGH PASSES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MORE WET WEATHER ON SATURDAY...BUT SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR THIS IS NOT AS STRONG. LIGHTNING DATA FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII SITE SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDER NEAR AND EAST OF THE MARIANAS TO 160E...SO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFTS IN CARRYING ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH SATURDAY. CURRENT TRADE-WIND SURGE HAS CAUSED SURF ON EAST FACING REEFS TO BUILD TO WITHIN A COUPLE OF FEET OF THE HIGH SURF THRESHOLD...BUT BELIEVE THE SURF IS PEAKING. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECLINE DURING THE WEEKEND. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE SHOWS THAT SHOWERS WERE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS MOST OF THIS AREA. GFS SEEMS TO INITIALIZE BEST AND INDICATES SHOWERS WILL SPREAD WESTWARD WITH THE ITCZ BETWEEN 5N AND 10N IN THE COMING DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR POHNPEI TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THESE THREE FORECAST POINTS. THE ITCZ IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK AND KOSRAE SHOULD RECEIVE A FEW MORE SHOWERS BY THEN. MAJURO BUOY KALO SHOWS COMBINED SEAS 6 FT/9 SEC. SEAS ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY RISE IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER TRADE WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE MARSHALLS BUT MODELS SHOW SWELL HEIGHTS LOW ENOUGH AS NOT TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF AT ANY OF THE FORECAST LOCATIONS. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... FAIRLY MOIST PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ONLY BETWEEN FORECAST POINTS. MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY AND MAINLY USED GFS FOR GUIDANCE. GFS INDICATES BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE AT BOTH KOROR AND CHUUK ABOUT FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. TIMING ANY PARTICULAR SCATTERED SHOWER EVENT MUCH IN ADVANCE WILL BE DIFFICULT. LIGHT TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE IN THE COMING DAYS. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MCELROY/SIMPSON +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.