Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 4 Nov 2010 01:12:09 -0500

ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZNOV2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9N
110.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 110.4E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINAL WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH
DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE 19 - 23 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE (OUTSIDE
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION) AND STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE (NEARER TO THE DEEPEST CONVECTION). A MORE RECENT 040234Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
POSSIBLY STRENGTHENED TO 25 KNOTS ABOUT FOUR HOURS AGO, BUT THE
CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION SUGGESTS OTHERWISE. THE LLCC IS NOW
EXPOSED OVER 120 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A SMALL AREA OF WANING
CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. THE LLCC HAS ALSO BEGUN TO
OPEN AND IS DISCONTINUOUS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE LLCC IS
SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD AND IS ABOUT 75 NM EAST OF VIETNAM. IF THE
SYSTEM STARTS TO CONSOLIDATE AGAIN AND IF VWS RELAXES, THEN THERE IS
STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS GOOD. SEE REF A (WTPN22 PGTW 032100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//

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