From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Nov 4 14:12:35 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oA46CY0p017105 for ; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 14:12:34 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA41fWgc028721; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 01:12:17 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4208816 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 01:12:16 -0500 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA46CGjc024056 for ; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 01:12:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA46CAa8019921 for ; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 01:12:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 0BDE5405001F; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 01:12:09 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101104061210.0BDE5405001F@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 4 Nov 2010 01:12:09 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list ABPW10 PGTW 040600 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZNOV2010// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 110.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 110.4E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 19 - 23 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE (OUTSIDE THE DEEPEST CONVECTION) AND STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI- CIRCLE (NEARER TO THE DEEPEST CONVECTION). A MORE RECENT 040234Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSSIBLY STRENGTHENED TO 25 KNOTS ABOUT FOUR HOURS AGO, BUT THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION SUGGESTS OTHERWISE. THE LLCC IS NOW EXPOSED OVER 120 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A SMALL AREA OF WANING CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. THE LLCC HAS ALSO BEGUN TO OPEN AND IS DISCONTINUOUS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE LLCC IS SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD AND IS ABOUT 75 NM EAST OF VIETNAM. IF THE SYSTEM STARTS TO CONSOLIDATE AGAIN AND IF VWS RELAXES, THEN THERE IS STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. SEE REF A (WTPN22 PGTW 032100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.