Subject: Pacific-NW: Ampn/ref A Is A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert.//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 4 Nov 2010 13:41:05 -0500

WTPN22 PGTW 041900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/032051ZNOV2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4N
110.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 110.7E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH STRATOCUMULUS WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE, INDICATIVE OF COOL, DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERLY
SURGE. A 041547Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS A WEAKLY-DEFINED LLCC. THE TRMM
IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE LLCC,
HOWEVER, THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERLY SURGE. A 041340Z
ASCAT IMAGE ALSO SUPPORTS A WEAK LLCC WITH STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW
(ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM) PENETRATING INTO THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS) AND
THE COOL, DRY AIR INTRUSION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO POOR. THIS CANCELS REF A.//

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