From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Nov 5 02:41:26 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oA4IfP5i020296 for ; Fri, 5 Nov 2010 02:41:26 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA4I6vUZ028721; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 13:41:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4217688 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 13:41:12 -0500 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA4IfC3E023142 for ; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 13:41:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA4If51K002108 for ; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 13:41:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 924394050020; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 13:41:05 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101104184105.924394050020@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 4 Nov 2010 13:41:05 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Ampn/ref A Is A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert.// To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN22 PGTW 041900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/032051ZNOV2010// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 110.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 110.7E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH STRATOCUMULUS WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMI- CIRCLE, INDICATIVE OF COOL, DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERLY SURGE. A 041547Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS A WEAKLY-DEFINED LLCC. THE TRMM IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE LLCC, HOWEVER, THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERLY SURGE. A 041340Z ASCAT IMAGE ALSO SUPPORTS A WEAK LLCC WITH STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW (ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM) PENETRATING INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS) AND THE COOL, DRY AIR INTRUSION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR. THIS CANCELS REF A.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.