From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Nov 5 03:30:30 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oA4JUTXX025111 for ; Fri, 5 Nov 2010 03:30:29 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA3MLcwD001368; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 14:30:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4218621 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 14:30:16 -0500 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA4JUFhK028291 for ; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 14:30:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA4JU8VN019444 for ; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 14:30:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id AFF444050020; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 14:30:08 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101104193008.AFF444050020@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 4 Nov 2010 14:30:08 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list ABPW10 PGTW 042030 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/042030Z-050600ZNOV2010// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041851ZNOV2010// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 110.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 110.7E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH STRATOCUMULUS WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMI- CIRCLE, INDICATIVE OF COOL, DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERLY SURGE. A 041547Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS A WEAKLY-DEFINED LLCC. THE TRMM IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE LLCC, HOWEVER, THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERLY SURGE. A 041340Z ASCAT IMAGE ALSO SUPPORTS A WEAK LLCC WITH STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW (ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM) PENETRATING INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS) AND THE COOL, DRY AIR INTRUSION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR. SEE REF A (WTPN22 PGTW 041900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO POOR.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.