Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 4 Nov 2010 14:30:08 -0500

ABPW10 PGTW 042030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/042030Z-050600ZNOV2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041851ZNOV2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4N
110.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 110.7E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH STRATOCUMULUS WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE, INDICATIVE OF COOL, DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERLY
SURGE. A 041547Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS A WEAKLY-DEFINED LLCC. THE TRMM
IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE LLCC,
HOWEVER, THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERLY SURGE. A 041340Z
ASCAT IMAGE ALSO SUPPORTS A WEAK LLCC WITH STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW
(ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM) PENETRATING INTO THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS) AND
THE COOL, DRY AIR INTRUSION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO POOR. SEE REF A (WTPN22 PGTW 041900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
POOR.//

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