From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Nov 5 05:22:30 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oA4LMSDu002340 for ; Fri, 5 Nov 2010 05:22:29 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA4I6vmL028721; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 16:22:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4220702 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 16:22:16 -0500 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA4LMGHi010294 for ; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 16:22:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA4LM9D8006120 for ; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 16:22:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 8E4F34050021; Thu, 4 Nov 2010 16:22:09 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101104212209.8E4F34050021@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 4 Nov 2010 16:22:09 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 693 FXPQ60 PGUM 042121 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 721 AM CHST FRI NOV 5 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. && .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF SINKING AIR WHICH WILL KEEP THE MARIANAS DRIER AND CLEARER THAN HAD BEEN FORECAST EARLIER. TWEAKED CLOUDS...POP AND WEATHER DOWNWARD OVER THE FIRST 2 OR 3 PERIODS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST SEEMED TO HAVE EVERYTHING WELL IN HAND SO NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. SWELLS ARE SIGNIFICANT BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR EITHER SMALL CRAFT OR HIGH SURF ADVISORIES. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... DRIER SOUTHEAST TRADE-WIND FLOW HAS OVERTAKEN THE MARSHALLS BEHIND A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS STEADILY MOVING WESTWARD. THIS RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST INTENSE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE-WIND TROUGH REMAINS NORTH OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE...WITH IR IMAGERY SHOWING STRATIFORM PRECIP COMING TO AN END OVER POHNPEI. CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO MAJURO TODAY SHOULD PREVAIL AT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO MOVE OVER MAJURO SUNDAY SHIFTS WESTWARD... AFFECTING KOSRAE SUNDAY NIGHT AND POHNPEI ON MONDAY. TRADE-WIND SWELL HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A HIGH SURF EVENT AT ANY OF THE FORECAST LOCATIONS. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION IS WORKING INTO THE CHUUK MARINE ZONE FROM THE EAST WITH WET CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. AN ACTIVE DISTURBANCE EAST OF YAP WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND POSSIBLY TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE REVERTED BACK TO A DRIER SCENARIO FOR KOROR...PLACING MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.