Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 4 Nov 2010 16:22:09 -0500

693 
FXPQ60 PGUM 042121
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
721 AM CHST FRI NOV 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS
WATERS. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
SINKING AIR WHICH WILL KEEP THE MARIANAS DRIER AND CLEARER THAN
HAD BEEN FORECAST EARLIER. TWEAKED CLOUDS...POP AND WEATHER
DOWNWARD OVER THE FIRST 2 OR 3 PERIODS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST SEEMED TO HAVE EVERYTHING WELL IN HAND SO
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. SWELLS ARE SIGNIFICANT BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR EITHER SMALL CRAFT OR HIGH SURF ADVISORIES.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
DRIER SOUTHEAST TRADE-WIND FLOW HAS OVERTAKEN THE MARSHALLS BEHIND A 
LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS STEADILY MOVING WESTWARD. THIS RELATIVELY 
DRY PATTERN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER 
TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST INTENSE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE-WIND TROUGH REMAINS NORTH OF POHNPEI AND 
KOSRAE...WITH IR IMAGERY SHOWING STRATIFORM PRECIP COMING TO AN END 
OVER POHNPEI. CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO MAJURO TODAY SHOULD PREVAIL
AT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO MOVE OVER MAJURO SUNDAY SHIFTS WESTWARD...
AFFECTING KOSRAE SUNDAY NIGHT AND POHNPEI ON MONDAY. TRADE-WIND
SWELL HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A HIGH SURF EVENT AT ANY
OF THE FORECAST LOCATIONS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION IS WORKING INTO THE CHUUK MARINE ZONE FROM THE EAST WITH 
WET CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. 
AN ACTIVE DISTURBANCE EAST OF YAP WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE 
OVER THE AREA TODAY AND POSSIBLY TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE REVERTED BACK 
TO A DRIER SCENARIO FOR KOROR...PLACING MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY 
TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS

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