Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 5 Nov 2010 02:49:58 -0500

725 
FXPQ60 PGUM 050749
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
549 PM CHST FRI NOV 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH JUST NORTH OF THE MARIANAS IS DOMINATING
THE REGION WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO SEEN EAST OF THE
MARIANAS NEAR 150E AND IS TRACKING WESTWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT IS NEEDED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND POP A LITTLE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE FROM THE EAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUBSIDENCE
ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL SUPPRESS SHOWER ACTIVITY AT ISOLATED
CATEGORY. THEN MOST MODELS ARE INDICATING AN EVEN DRIER TREND BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MID TO UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS.

&&

.MARINE...
TRADE-WIND SWELLS ARE PEAKING AND WILL BEGIN TO DECLINE GRADUALLY
ON SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE...COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE GOING TO
SUBSIDE BY ONE FOOT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECASTS AND FORECAST REASONING. HOWEVER...
CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED NEAR AND OVER POHNPEI LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED. THE REST OF THE REASONING REMAINS THE SAME. DRIER
SOUTHEAST TRADE-WIND FLOW HAS OVERTAKEN THE MARSHALLS BEHIND THE
LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS THAT IS STEADILY MOVING WESTWARD. A
RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE ARRIVAL
OF ANOTHER TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST INTENSE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE-WIND TROUGH REMAINS NORTH OF
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO MAJURO
SHOULD PREVAIL AT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE THE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO MOVE OVER MAJURO
SUNDAY CONTINUES WESTWARD...AFFECTING KOSRAE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
POHNPEI ON MONDAY. TRADE-WIND SWELL HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO
PREVENT A HIGH SURF EVENT AT ALL OF THE FORECAST LOCATIONS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION HAS WORKED ITS WAY OVER CHUUK FROM THE EAST WITH WET
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED OVER YAP AND WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE REVERTED TO A DRIER
SCENARIO FOR KOROR...HAVE FORECASTED SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR A FEW
PERIODS BECAUSE THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS THERE NOW AND MORE
UPSTREAM ON SATELLITE. THE GFS TIME HEIGHT INDICATES PERIODS OF
SCATTED SHOWERS FOR KOROR THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CHAN/DEVITA

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