From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Nov 5 15:50:24 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oA57oMXO018533 for ; Fri, 5 Nov 2010 15:50:23 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA4I6vGV028721; Fri, 5 Nov 2010 02:50:05 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4226573 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 5 Nov 2010 02:50:05 -0500 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA57o5BS019774 for ; Fri, 5 Nov 2010 02:50:05 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA57nw6F012920 for ; Fri, 5 Nov 2010 02:50:04 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 80CB4405001E; Fri, 5 Nov 2010 02:49:58 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101105074958.80CB4405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 5 Nov 2010 02:49:58 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 725 FXPQ60 PGUM 050749 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 549 PM CHST FRI NOV 5 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH JUST NORTH OF THE MARIANAS IS DOMINATING THE REGION WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO SEEN EAST OF THE MARIANAS NEAR 150E AND IS TRACKING WESTWARD. && .DISCUSSION... ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT IS NEEDED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST... INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND POP A LITTLE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE FROM THE EAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL SUPPRESS SHOWER ACTIVITY AT ISOLATED CATEGORY. THEN MOST MODELS ARE INDICATING AN EVEN DRIER TREND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MID TO UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS. && .MARINE... TRADE-WIND SWELLS ARE PEAKING AND WILL BEGIN TO DECLINE GRADUALLY ON SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE...COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE GOING TO SUBSIDE BY ONE FOOT ON SUNDAY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECASTS AND FORECAST REASONING. HOWEVER... CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED NEAR AND OVER POHNPEI LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THE REST OF THE REASONING REMAINS THE SAME. DRIER SOUTHEAST TRADE-WIND FLOW HAS OVERTAKEN THE MARSHALLS BEHIND THE LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS THAT IS STEADILY MOVING WESTWARD. A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST INTENSE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE-WIND TROUGH REMAINS NORTH OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO MAJURO SHOULD PREVAIL AT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO MOVE OVER MAJURO SUNDAY CONTINUES WESTWARD...AFFECTING KOSRAE SUNDAY NIGHT AND POHNPEI ON MONDAY. TRADE-WIND SWELL HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT A HIGH SURF EVENT AT ALL OF THE FORECAST LOCATIONS. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION HAS WORKED ITS WAY OVER CHUUK FROM THE EAST WITH WET CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. A DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED OVER YAP AND WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE REVERTED TO A DRIER SCENARIO FOR KOROR...HAVE FORECASTED SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR A FEW PERIODS BECAUSE THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS THERE NOW AND MORE UPSTREAM ON SATELLITE. THE GFS TIME HEIGHT INDICATES PERIODS OF SCATTED SHOWERS FOR KOROR THROUGH MONDAY. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ CHAN/DEVITA +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.