Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 5 Nov 2010 16:25:05 -0500

511 
FXPQ60 PGUM 052125
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
725 AM CHST SAT NOV 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS
WATERS. MORE OF THE SAME LIES UPSTREAM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS GIVE US LESS THAN 2 INCHES QPF OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. LOOKS
LIKE THE DRY PART OF WET SEASON HAS ARRIVED. THIS IS DEFINITELY
TOO SOON TO BE CALLING FOR DRY SEASON BUT FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO
WE SHOULD HAVE LESS RAIN THAN USUAL. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS
REDUCED THE CLOUDINESS A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT. OVERALL THE
FORECAST LOOKED REALLY GOOD SO NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONVECTION ALONG AN 
EMBEDDED TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE HAS DEVELOPED EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED OVER MAJURO. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR THE MARSHALLS AS
CONVERGENCE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. ALSO...ADDED SCATTERED
WORDING TO KOSRAE SUNDAY NIGHT AND POHNPEI MONDAY AS CONSISTENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN A STEADY WESTWARD MIGRATION OF THE EMBEDDED
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. EVEN SO...TIMING MAY BE THE MOST
DIFFICULT FORECAST CHALLENGE GIVEN THE CURRENT SCENARIO OVER THE
MARSHALLS SO INCLUDED AN ADVANCED TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER YAP AND KOROR WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORT 
PERIOD OF DRYNESS AT THESE LOCATIONS BEFORE THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH 
APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT FOR YAP. MOST OF THE 
HEAVIER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF KOROR BUT IS STILL 
PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR CHUUK...TAIL END OF 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH HEADED TOWARD YAP 
SHOULD DISSOLVE THROUGH TODAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHOWERS 
COULD RETURN AS SOON AS MONDAY FOR CHUUK IF DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY 
OVER THE MARSHALLS HOLDS TOGETHER.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS

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