From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Nov 6 05:25:48 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id oA5LPk7E006182 for ; Sat, 6 Nov 2010 05:25:47 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA5DLREc028721; Fri, 5 Nov 2010 16:25:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 4236217 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 5 Nov 2010 16:25:12 -0500 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA5LPCnJ026416 for ; Fri, 5 Nov 2010 16:25:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id oA5LP5v7026806 for ; Fri, 5 Nov 2010 16:25:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 9C710405001E; Fri, 5 Nov 2010 16:25:05 -0500 (CDT) X-Proofpoint-Spam-Reason: safe Message-ID: <20101105212505.9C710405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 5 Nov 2010 16:25:05 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 511 FXPQ60 PGUM 052125 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 725 AM CHST SAT NOV 6 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. MORE OF THE SAME LIES UPSTREAM. && .DISCUSSION... MODELS GIVE US LESS THAN 2 INCHES QPF OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. LOOKS LIKE THE DRY PART OF WET SEASON HAS ARRIVED. THIS IS DEFINITELY TOO SOON TO BE CALLING FOR DRY SEASON BUT FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO WE SHOULD HAVE LESS RAIN THAN USUAL. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS REDUCED THE CLOUDINESS A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT. OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKED REALLY GOOD SO NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONVECTION ALONG AN EMBEDDED TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE HAS DEVELOPED EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED OVER MAJURO. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR THE MARSHALLS AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. ALSO...ADDED SCATTERED WORDING TO KOSRAE SUNDAY NIGHT AND POHNPEI MONDAY AS CONSISTENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN A STEADY WESTWARD MIGRATION OF THE EMBEDDED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. EVEN SO...TIMING MAY BE THE MOST DIFFICULT FORECAST CHALLENGE GIVEN THE CURRENT SCENARIO OVER THE MARSHALLS SO INCLUDED AN ADVANCED TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER YAP AND KOROR WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF DRYNESS AT THESE LOCATIONS BEFORE THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT FOR YAP. MOST OF THE HEAVIER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF KOROR BUT IS STILL PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR CHUUK...TAIL END OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH HEADED TOWARD YAP SHOULD DISSOLVE THROUGH TODAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHOWERS COULD RETURN AS SOON AS MONDAY FOR CHUUK IF DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE MARSHALLS HOLDS TOGETHER. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.